China Economics Weekly The near-term outlook has deteriorated The National People’s Congress concluded today with a pledge of policy support for the ailing economy from Premier Li. The next dose could come next week, when the PBOC has a chance to lower its MLF... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil price surge to dent but not derail recovery We are reducing our GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 0.8%-pts on account of the surge in oil prices and the resulting hit to investment in particular. We now think the economy will grow by 9.2% this... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Broad credit growth was much weaker than expected last month, reversing much of the acceleration of the past few months. This suggests that more easing measures will be needed to meet the policy... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Soaring energy prices will slow consumption growth In our base case, soaring energy prices and pass-through of higher energy input costs to manufactured goods will knock off 1.5%-pts from households’ disposable income. While the still high savings... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update State election results could reignite reform agenda The BJP’s performance in India’s state elections keeps it in a strong position nationally to pursue politically-difficult reforms. But it may instead conclude that its strong electoral showing was... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch 2% inflation wouldn’t be enough for rate hike While the war in Ukraine will lift Japanese inflation to the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, continued weakness in wage pressures and underlying inflation mean that the Bank won’t respond with a rate hike... 10th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: new president a clear break from Moon Yoon Suk-yeol’s victory in yesterday’s presidential election should lead to a shift away from the bigger, and more active state that began under President Moon. But the lack of a parliamentary... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Soaring energy prices unlikely to dent profits much The recent spike in energy prices will lift import prices in Japan by around 10%, but the increase would be twice as large if Russian energy exports were banned. Japan’s flagship manufacturing sectors... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Chinese inflation picked up last month, though this was masked in the headline figures by base effects. With commodity prices soaring in response to the war in Ukraine, inflation will rise further in... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine has triggered renewed outflows from EM financial markets as risk aversion has taken hold, but there are few signs of severe financial contagion. And even if outflows were to... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: central bank to resume tightening cycle soon The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today left interest rates on hold, but the surge in oil prices mean it is likely to resume its tightening cycle soon. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 22) The pick-up in wage growth in January was broad-based. However, with regular pay growth still around 0%, the coming energy-driven surge in inflation towards the BoJ’s 2% target won’t be sustained... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2022 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress signal that China’s leadership is expecting much weaker growth this year than the relatively upbeat GDP growth target might... 7th March 2022 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China unlikely to ramp up Russian energy imports The latest trade data show that China’s energy imports contracted in the first two months of the year in y/y terms. And even if the West were to cut off Russian energy imports altogether, we doubt... 7th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jan. & Feb.) Trade volumes remained strong last month but are likely to soften over the coming quarters as China’s import-intensive construction sector cools further and rising inflation dampens demand for... 7th March 2022 · 3 mins read
