China Economics Weekly Services suffering Incoming data over recent days have been worse than generally expected and probably still don’t fully reflect the extent of current economic disruption in China. The week has ended with some positive... 1st April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China demand will still be key in driving metal prices The war in Ukraine and high energy prices will keep industrial metal prices elevated for now. But once supply fears ease, the weakness in China’s demand will be exposed and will weigh on prices. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Price pressures are building The main focus next week will be the RBI’s policy announcement on Friday. We think the MPC will leave its policy settings unchanged, but we still expect the committee to ditch its dovish tone later... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Investor rebellions getting harder for BoJ to put down The Bank of Japan had to go to unprecedented lengths to push 10-year yields back down into its ±0.25% tolerance band this week. If this week’s rate of JGB purchases were sustained through April, the... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today fell under 50 last month as measures to contain the latest virus outbreak weighed heavily on industry and, taken together with the official survey... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q1 2022) The fall in the Q1 Tankan suggests that GDP almost certainly contracted last quarter. However, non-manufacturing sentiment held up better-than-expected during the Omicron wave and the labour market... 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Feb.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries picked up in February as the Omicron wave subsided. But the surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine is likely to squeeze profit... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Mar.) The surveys add to growing evidence of a large blow to service sector activity amid the latest virus surge. The hit to industry looks to have been much more modest. But even so, the economy is in the... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (Feb 2022) Industrial production was broadly unchanged in February after two monthly falls that still left output well below its pre-supply shortages peak. 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier debt risks are crystallising The tightening of global financial conditions since the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle and the war in Ukraine has caused sovereign dollar bond spreads to widen significantly in several frontier... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Growth-focussed MPC will need to tighten before long Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, MPC members have emphasised the need for monetary policy to mitigate the downside risks to economic growth. It therefore seems likely that interest rates will... 30th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to stay low despite inflation worries The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today and suggested that it would continue to look through a temporary rise in inflation to support the economic recovery. We... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Feb. 2022) Retail sales dropped again in February, making it almost certain that consumer spending fell across Q1. Looking into Q2 though, private consumption is well set for a strong, booster-boosted rebound. 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
