Asia Economics Update Pakistan: major challenges await new PM The main challenge facing Shehbaz Sharif, who today replaced Imran Khan as prime minister of Pakistan, is stabilising the economy. The key to achieving this is a deal with the IMF. The price for any... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update More thoughts on the RBI’s policy shift The RBI’s policy announcement and the introduction of the Standing Deposit Facility has prompted a number of questions from clients on its intended purpose and what it means for monetary policy. This... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth was much stronger than expected last month amid increased policy support. With more easing on the horizon, we expect a further acceleration although a sharp pick-up in lending... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Factory gate inflation picked up last month, though this was masked in the headline figures by base effects. Consumer prices continued to rise as well. Although the price of some goods will stay high... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russia relations, LIC IPO, RBI policy stance Relations between India and Russia came under fresh scrutiny this week. But tentative signs that India is beginning to tread more carefully suggest that discounted Russian commodities are now even... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan: PM Khan stumped, emergency hike by SBP In Pakistan, the week began with a constitutional crisis and it will likely end with a new Prime Minister at the helm following the Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. Prime Minister Khan’s successors... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market revival delayed by outbreak Prior to the latest COVID-19 outbreak, China’s housing market had appeared on the cusp of a rebound. But movement restrictions and weaker consumer confidence have since caused home sales to slump... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI turning less accommodative The MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4.00% today came as no surprise but the introduction of a new policy rate that sets a higher floor for the interest rate corridor... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Large current account surplus not a thing of the past Surging import prices and depressed services exports have shrunk down Japan’s current account surplus to near zero over the past year. However, we expect a large surplus to return over the next couple... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Mar.) India’s March PMIs show services as the bright spot last month as looser virus restrictions allowed activity to rebound. Unless COVID-19 cases pick up again, the outlook for the services sector... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yen intervention may not work and benefits unclear The yen isn’t obviously undervalued so it isn’t clear whether attempts to weaken it would work. Most importantly, the Bank of Japan remains convinced that a weaker yen is beneficial for Japan’s... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Feb. 22) Japanese wage growth strengthened in February and we think it will accelerate further over the coming months as overtime and bonus pay continue to recover. However, as the post-Omicron rebound wears... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Flaring political risks a major threat in South Asia A constitutional crisis in Pakistan threatens to scupper its deal with the IMF, which would throw its already-precarious external situation into very dangerous territory. Meanwhile, political meltdown... 4th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think China’s stock market is set to surge While we suspect the recent recovery in the MSCI China Index may have further to run, we don’t think the stage is set for a big rally either. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
