Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2022) Inflation picked up in February due to another jump in utilities inflation and a strong rise in fresh food inflation. We think headline inflation will rise above 2% in April as some of the spike in... 18th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan hikes rates, but further tightening to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today unexpectedly raised its main policy rate by 25bps to 1.375%, but we doubt this is the start of an aggressive tightening cycle given the mounting downside risks to growth... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten policy gradually Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, and the weakness of inflation and strong performance of the rupiah mean the tightening cycle is likely to be very... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2022) The fall in machinery orders in January suggests that business investment may not recover much this quarter from a disappointing 2021. But with corporate profits recovering strongly last year, firms... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update COVID-19 derails China’s domestic recovery yet again The current virus wave will deal the biggest blow to China’s service sector since the original outbreak. If the lockdowns already imposed can suppress infections quickly then disruption to industry... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s export hubs in worst outbreak since Wuhan Half of China’s exports are produced in areas that are now experiencing COVID outbreaks and three quarters of its exports are shipped from them. It is still possible that infections can be suppressed... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities at multi-year highs The surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine will lead to a deterioration in India’s external position, with the current account deficit widening to almost 4% of GDP this year... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2022) Exports fell again in February, though they should rebound over the coming months provided the recent Omicron outbreak in China doesn’t cause major supply chain disruptions to resurface. Bank of Japan... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.), PBOC Rates (Mar.) Activity data for the first two months of the year was stronger than anticipated, which probably explains why the People’s Bank (PBOC) unexpectedly kept its policy rates on hold today. But the economy... 15th March 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) India’s consumer price inflation breached the RBI’s 6% ceiling in February, sooner than even our relatively hawkish forecasts had suggested. The surge in commodity prices will keep the headline rate... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation now the biggest concern for the BoK Concerns about inflation in Korea are rising, just as those about financial stability risks are starting to recede. Despite the worsening growth outlook caused by the surge in energy prices and war in... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Indian wholesale price inflation remained near historic highs in February, and it is likely to stay elevated in the near term given the recent surge in commodity prices. 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New GDP growth forecasts We are cutting our GDP growth forecasts for many parts of emerging Asia in response to the surge in global energy prices and the war in Ukraine. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
