Asia Economics Weekly What next for Pakistan and Sri Lanka? Recent tumultuous events in Pakistan and Sri Lanka should eventually pave the way for IMF deals in both countries, which over time may lead to the return of economic stability. However, this is by no... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine and the start of the US Fed’s hiking cycle have exposed macro imbalances in some frontier economies, but do not appear to have had a significant impact on capital flows into many of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation surge sets stage for June rate hike We’ve been arguing for several months that both the consensus and the RBI have been underestimating the upside threats to inflation. Consumer price data for March released this week have reinforced... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Logistics under pressure but virus situation improving China’s economy is still reeling from the impact of COVID-19 restrictions. Although the hit remains most severe in services, disruption to trucking has added pressure to industrial supply chains in... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK resumes tightening cycle, more hikes to come. Today’s decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 1.50% is unlikely to mark the end of its tightening cycle given the strength of inflationary pressures. We expect at... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Coal, cautious consumers, the BoJ starts to relax Japan’s ban on Russian coal is unlikely to lift domestic energy prices much given that coal import prices closely track the Newcastle spot price which have fallen sharply over the past month. A bigger... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightening and strong economy will support SGD The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened monetary policy again at its meeting today. With growth set to remain strong and core inflation likely to stay elevated, we expect the MAS to... 14th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to resume widening before long The narrowing in India’s goods trade deficit in March was due in large part to a sharp drop in gold imports. Even if gold imports remain low, we still expect the trade and current account deficits to... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Pakistan’s crisis We held a Drop-In on the political and economic problems facing Pakistan earlier today (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers some of the most common questions that we received. 13th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports pointing to weaker demand The latest trade data out of China suggest that recent restrictions imposed to contain the surge in new cases of COVID-19 are hitting commodity demand hard. And we think it will remain weak in the... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs Most EMs are not heavily dependent on Russia or Ukraine for their domestic food supplies, but there are key pockets of vulnerability due to large wheat, corn and vegetable seed/oil exports to Turkey... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Inflation will force the RBI’s hand The surge in global commodity prices will take a little gloss off India’s economic recovery this year but we still expect stronger GDP growth than the consensus. Higher commodity prices will also keep... 13th April 2022 · 19 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Mar.) Goods trade dropped back sharply last month. While disruptions from the latest COVID-19 outbreak are partly to blame, shifts on the demand-side played a bigger role. 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation soared beyond even our above-consensus forecast in March and, given that it is likely to rise further over the coming months, we think the RBI will start hiking the... 12th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the case for Japanese equities The valuations of mid- and large-cap equities in Japan have become even more attractive compared to those of their US counterparts following a further period of substantial underperformance in common... 12th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka suspends debt payments, pushes for IMF deal Sri Lanka’s decision today to suspend payments to bond holders is designed to pave the way for a deal with the IMF and an orderly rescheduling of its debts. The diverse array of creditors to Sri Lanka... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
