Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Further tightening needed, as IMF talks begin High inflation and the fall in the currency were the two key factors behind the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to raise interest rates by a further 150bp today. More tightening looks... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update A small helping hand for households Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia late to tightening but won’t have to go far Central banks in India, the Philippines and Malaysia have all raised interest rates for the first time this cycle in recent weeks, and we expect further hikes next week in Indonesia, Korea and... 20th May 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly How quickly can activity rebound? China’s previous COVID outbreaks offer a few clues to how quickly the economy will rebound this time. Even if further large-scale lockdowns are avoided, activity is unlikely to have recovered in full... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Heatwave damage, MPC minutes, WPI surge The government’s decision to restrict exports of wheat following heavy damage to crops from the heatwave will have limited impact on the trade balance and inflation. The bigger worry is that the... 20th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan to outperform as cost of living rising less sharply GDP shrank yet again in Q1 as the Omicron wave brought the recovery in consumption to a halt. However, services spending was more resilient than we had anticipated and there are good reasons to think... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A helping hand for the housing market Today’s reduction to the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) should help drive a revival in housing sales, which have gone from bad to worse recently. But the lack of any reduction to the one-year LPR... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2022) Inflation rose above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for the first time since 2008 and we expect underlying inflation to approach 2% later this year, but this won't prompt the Bank to tighten... 20th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weaker yen won’t provide a big boost to net exports With Japan’s terms of trade set to improve only modestly and interest rates differentials moving further against the yen, we expect the exchange rate to fall to 140 against the dollar by year-end. But... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Apr. 2022) Export volumes fell in April, and they are likely to remain subdued over the coming months until supply shortages dissipate and allow exporters to make up for lost ground. 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What would tighter monetary policy mean for Japan? We don’t expect the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy meaningfully but, with inflation about to breach 2%, what if we are wrong? The direct impact of higher interest rates on the corporate... 18th May 2022 · 15 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q1 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy only contracted slightly in Q1 as consumption held up well despite prolonged restrictions during the Omicron wave. But while the economy will bounce back this quarter, we think Japan’s... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia to remain inflation outlier Despite surging global food and fuel prices, inflation across most of Emerging Asia looks set to remain relatively low. This is the key reason why tightening cycles in the region will be much more... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
