Asia Economics Update Malaysia: central bank signals gradual tightening cycle Bank Negara Malaysia today raised its main policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% and reiterated that further tightening would be gradual. With the economy on the mend but inflation still low, we are sticking... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jun.) India’s June PMIs show exceptionally strong activity in the services sector is offsetting slower growth in manufacturing. That may give the RBI some added confidence to continue frontloading policy... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May 22) The slowdown in wage growth in May was entirely due to volatile bonus payments. Nonetheless, we don’t expect wages to grow fast enough for the Bank of Japan to start tightening policy anytime soon. 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Russian gas export ban would hold back recovery If Russia decided to end all exports of natural gas to Japan, we suspect that Japan’s GDP would fall by around 0.5%. However, the hit could be larger as there is now less scope to reduce energy usage... 4th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: recovery in China but weakness elsewhere The S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI hit its highest level in over a year last month, but that was almost entirely driven by a recovery in China. The surveys softened across most of the rest of the... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Rebound in China’s PMIs likely to be a one-off We think that the recovery in China’s PMIs in June was driven by the lifting of virus-related restrictions rather than an improvement in underlying economic conditions. Accordingly, we think that... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly GST hikes add to inflation concerns The Finance Ministry’s announcement this week of hikes to GST rates doesn’t signify a tighter fiscal stance, but it does add to the upside risks to inflation. This reinforces our belief that the RBI... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Banks given more room to lend, housing vouchers Bank lending has been weak recently but that could soon change. Quantitative controls on loans were loosened further in Q2, giving banks room to ramp up lending as credit demand rebounds following... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in June, adding to the evidence of a slowdown in the broader industrial sector. Meanwhile although there are tentative signs of price pressures in the sector... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery will continue to disappoint The slump in industrial output and the stagnation in real retail sales in May has prompted us to lower our estimate of Q2 GDP growth. While the easing of the lockdown in Shanghai will contribute to a... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI hit a 13-month high in June and points to a jump in output as virus restrictions were lifted and supply chain conditions improved. But it still points to subdued demand... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2), Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (Jun.) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is benefitting from the easing of virus restrictions, the outlook for the manufacturing sector is worsening. Meanwhile, the labour market... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) Base effects boosted y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries to a 13-month high in May. But stripping out base effects reveals that industry might be entering a softer patch after a... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The official PMIs point to a surprisingly rapid recovery in services activity this month after virus restrictions were mostly lifted. But this likely reflects a one-off boost from reopening and we... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
