Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Output will return to pre-virus trend eventually With a record virus wave sweeping across the country and consumer confidence slumping, we’re slashing our forecast for Q3 consumption growth from 0.8% to 0.2%. While the government has refrained from... 8th August 2022 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jul.) Exports held up well last month, thanks to a backlog of orders still being cleared. But it won’t be long before shipments drop back on cooling foreign demand. Meanwhile, imports continued to trend... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Exports coming off the boil, RBI continues frontloading Data released this week show that Indian exporters are not immune from the broad weakening in demand as the global growth outlooks deteriorates. Meanwhile, the RBI continued frontloading policy... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The rise and fall of Japan's energy imports Japan is still struggling to wean itself off fossil fuels despite a new government push to boost solar power. However, the country has become more energy efficient over the past decade, which has... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will press on with another 50bp hike next month The Reserve Bank of Australia has indicated that it will slow the pace of tightening over coming months as tighter policy is starting to weigh on activity. With growth softening rather than collapsing... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The RBI today raised the repo rate by 50bps to 5.40% as we had anticipated, and struck a relatively hawkish tone despite inflation surprising to the downside in recent months. It’s clear that the... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Economic growth in Indonesia remained strong in Q2, but we expect the economy to slow in the second half of the year as the jump in commodity prices goes into reverse and the boost from reopening... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jun. 22) The jump in wage growth in June was mostly driven by a surge in summer bonus payments and the Bank of Japan’s 3% wage growth target will remain out of reach for a while yet. More positively, the... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jul.) India’s July PMIs show a reversal of the recent outperformance of services. That said, both the services and composite PMIs remain high by pre-pandemic standards, pointing to growth continuing to hold... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What does a weak yen mean for Japan? The yen may have bottomed out against the dollar, but it is likely to remain weak for some time. That should boost Japan’s economy as higher revenues from exports and from overseas subsidiaries... 2nd August 2022 · 15 mins read
