Bank of Japan Watch Bank has breathing room to reconsider tolerance band The Bank of Japan will signal prolonged loose policy by forecasting below-target inflation over the next couple of years in next week’s “Outlook” report. Meanwhile, the fall in global bond yields in... 14th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more tightening ahead as BSP turns hawkish The decision by the central bank in the Philippines to raise its benchmark policy rate by a further 75bp (to 3.25%) at an unscheduled meeting reflects mounting concerns about inflation. Further hikes... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens even as economy stagnates The city-state’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in the second quarter but this didn’t prevent the MAS from tightening monetary policy today in a bid to tackle high inflation. While we expect output to... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities imports may be close to a trough Commodity import volumes were generally weak in June. We think some of this reflects the lingering impact of lockdowns on demand, but it also points to subdued activity in heavy industry and... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Import volumes fell to a three-year low last month, pointing to continued weakness in China’s construction sector. Exports rebounded strongly as shipping bottlenecks eased. But we think this may be... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea: tightening cycle to finish by year-end The Bank of Korea today raised its main policy rate by 50bp (to 2.25%), and further hikes are likely in the near term given worries about inflation. But with economic growth set to slow and inflation... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in June, but the core rate rose further. We expect inflation to climb higher above the RBI’s target in July and August, which should be enough for the MPC... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (June) A further slight pick-up in credit growth last month was given a big helping hand from government bond issuance as local governments were instructed to issue their annual allocation of bonds by the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Zero COVID, zero growth China’s economy almost certainly contracted last quarter. Perhaps the most interesting thing we’ll learn from the GDP data on Friday is how comfortable the government is with that fact. One other... 8th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to play it safe The Bank of Korea (BoK) has raised interest rates by 25bp five times so far this cycle, and further hikes looked nailed on for the central bank’s meeting on Wednesday. But whereas the consensus is... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Bond rollout intended to prevent infrastructure slump Policymakers are reportedly bringing forward some planned government bond issuance from next year to support infrastructure investment in the second half of 2022. This will help avert the slump in... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policy tweaks should provide some relief to rupee New measures to reduce gold imports are unlikely to lead to a substantially narrower current account deficit and support the rupee, not least because the decision to discourage fuel exports will have... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reshoring production bodes ill for profits The surge in firms’ capital spendings plan for the fiscal year that started in April to around a record high could be due to firms finally undertaking projects that have been held back by supply... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Further hikes likely as IMF deal nears The State Bank of Pakistan today raised its main policy rate by 125bps (to 15.0%), and made clear that fighting inflation would remain its priority. Given that inflation looks set to rise further in... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The limitations of China’s “new infrastructure” push Spending on high-tech “new infrastructure” should result in higher returns than adding more highways and railway lines. But it is not as effective a channel for cyclical policy stimulus. And a state... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
