Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher migration not enough to cool labour market An increase in the permanent migration programme will help to alleviate labour shortages. But the rapid tightening of the labour market in recent months has been driven by strong labour demand rather... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022. 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Surprise rate cut amid economic woes The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut its policy rates in response to a loss of economic momentum. A cut to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) later this month is now a given and we expect additional easing... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q2 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy grew in Q2 driven mainly by private consumption, though the overall figure disappointed mainly due to fluctuations in stockbuilding that won’t last. The recovery should persist through... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The bigger-than-expected drop in inflation in July is a challenge to our view that the MPC will hike the repo rate by 50bps again next month. But core inflation remains pretty strong, and the... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC turns less dovish on inflation The PBOC’s latest monetary policy report struck a less dovish tone, warning that inflationary pressure may increase in the near-term. We think these concerns are overdone and that inflation is more... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Credit growth dropped back last month, with property market jitters weighing on bank lending. It may continue to disappoint in the near-term given that sentiment among homebuyers is likely to stay... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Political wranglings weaken BJP’s hand For all its power in parliament’s lower house (Lok Sabha), a majority in the upper house (Rajya Sabha) has remained elusive for PM Modi’s BJP. As the main party in the National Democratic Alliance... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia edged down in q/q terms last quarter, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming quarters as commodity prices drop back and the boost from reopening fades. 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle will stop by year-end Rising interest rates are weighing on the housing market but economic activity is holding up and inflation has continued to accelerate. The upshot is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike... 10th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The implications of an escalating Taiwan crisis The extent to which neighbouring countries would be affected by an escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan would depend both on which sides they take and on the nature of restrictions imposed... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Consumer price inflation rose to a 24-month high in July and is now nearing the government’s target of 3%. But that is still very low by global standards, and we think headline inflation is close to a... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
