Asia Economics Weekly Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia edged down in q/q terms last quarter, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming quarters as commodity prices drop back and the boost from reopening fades. 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: gradual tightening cycle ahead The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by 25bp (to 0.75%), but reiterated that the tightening cycle will be gradual. We are sticking with our view that the policy rate will peak at 1.5% next... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle will stop by year-end Rising interest rates are weighing on the housing market but economic activity is holding up and inflation has continued to accelerate. The upshot is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike... 10th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The implications of an escalating Taiwan crisis The extent to which neighbouring countries would be affected by an escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan would depend both on which sides they take and on the nature of restrictions imposed... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Consumer price inflation rose to a 24-month high in July and is now nearing the government’s target of 3%. But that is still very low by global standards, and we think headline inflation is close to a... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Output will return to pre-virus trend eventually With a record virus wave sweeping across the country and consumer confidence slumping, we’re slashing our forecast for Q3 consumption growth from 0.8% to 0.2%. While the government has refrained from... 8th August 2022 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jul.) Exports held up well last month, thanks to a backlog of orders still being cleared. But it won’t be long before shipments drop back on cooling foreign demand. Meanwhile, imports continued to trend... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What a Taiwan Strait crisis could mean for markets While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Exports coming off the boil, RBI continues frontloading Data released this week show that Indian exporters are not immune from the broad weakening in demand as the global growth outlooks deteriorates. Meanwhile, the RBI continued frontloading policy... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The rise and fall of Japan's energy imports Japan is still struggling to wean itself off fossil fuels despite a new government push to boost solar power. However, the country has become more energy efficient over the past decade, which has... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will press on with another 50bp hike next month The Reserve Bank of Australia has indicated that it will slow the pace of tightening over coming months as tighter policy is starting to weigh on activity. With growth softening rather than collapsing... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The RBI today raised the repo rate by 50bps to 5.40% as we had anticipated, and struck a relatively hawkish tone despite inflation surprising to the downside in recent months. It’s clear that the... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
