China Economics Weekly Energy crunch threatens to spread nationally Southwest China is currently experiencing power shortages due to a severe drought and heatwave. Officials in Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality have responded by ordering week-long halts to... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Short term productivity outlook is bleak Already sluggish productivity growth has slowed even further since the pandemic, a disappointing result since Japan’s level of productivity remains much lower than in any other G7 economy. Two key... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jul. 2022) Headline inflation was the highest since 1991 in July and we think it still has higher to climb. But this will not make the Bank of Japan budge on its ultra-easy monetary policy. 19th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Struggling for momentum China’s post-Omicron rebound has fizzled out and the prospects for near-term growth are poor. Virus outbreaks are happening with increasing frequency. The housing market remains in a downward spiral... 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jul. 2022) Japan’s trade deficit widened to a record high in July but it should start to shrink over the coming months as supply shortages and commodity prices continue to ease. 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation in July reflects easing wholesale food inflation and lower commodity prices. But given both WPI and CPI inflation are still elevated, we think the RBI will... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher migration not enough to cool labour market An increase in the permanent migration programme will help to alleviate labour shortages. But the rapid tightening of the labour market in recent months has been driven by strong labour demand rather... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Prospects for female labour participation in India We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022. 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Surprise rate cut amid economic woes The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut its policy rates in response to a loss of economic momentum. A cut to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) later this month is now a given and we expect additional easing... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q2 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy grew in Q2 driven mainly by private consumption, though the overall figure disappointed mainly due to fluctuations in stockbuilding that won’t last. The recovery should persist through... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The bigger-than-expected drop in inflation in July is a challenge to our view that the MPC will hike the repo rate by 50bps again next month. But core inflation remains pretty strong, and the... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC turns less dovish on inflation The PBOC’s latest monetary policy report struck a less dovish tone, warning that inflationary pressure may increase in the near-term. We think these concerns are overdone and that inflation is more... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Credit growth dropped back last month, with property market jitters weighing on bank lending. It may continue to disappoint in the near-term given that sentiment among homebuyers is likely to stay... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Political wranglings weaken BJP’s hand For all its power in parliament’s lower house (Lok Sabha), a majority in the upper house (Rajya Sabha) has remained elusive for PM Modi’s BJP. As the main party in the National Democratic Alliance... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
