China Activity Monitor CAP: Knocked off course yet again Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output declined in September by the most since the Omicron wave. The main culprit – renewed disruption from virus curbs – appears to have worsened further... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slowdown to prompt early end to tightening cycle Economic growth in most countries looks set to slow sharply next year as weaker exports and higher interest rates weigh on activity. With price pressures starting to ease, we expect central banks to... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What Xi’s clean sweep means for the economy Xi Jinping has removed the last vestiges of rival factions from the upper echelons of the Party, stacking the Politburo full of loyalists in a clean sweep not seen since the Mao era. With political... 24th October 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update India’s position in a fracturing global economy Since independence, India has preferred to stay unaligned geopolitically. But in a fracturing global economy, the security and macroeconomic benefits of leaning towards the US – and away from China –... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the relative fortunes of China’s stock markets China’s stock markets have fallen by more than most this week, and indeed over this year so far. But the country’s onshore equities have generally proven more resilient than their offshore... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan economy now in fourth place, but not for long With the yen reaching a 14-year low against the euro, we estimate that Germany's GDP has overtaken Japan's in US$-terms. However, as the yen is now more severely undervalued relative to fundamentals... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness is not a big macro concern The rupee has this week continued its slide against the US dollar, dropping to a record low of 83/$ on Thursday. As has been the case over the past few months, this has been the trigger for a series... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2022) Headline inflation remained at a three-decade high in September and will climb slightly higher by early 2023. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy monetary... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update We expect mediocre long-run returns from Chinese equities Although relatively low equity valuations sometimes point to a greater chance of outsized returns over longer time horizons, we do not think that this is the case for China’s stock market. After all... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: China’s Congress, more yen weakness, hawkish central banks and more 1666857600 Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories.
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia has more work to do Bank Indonesia today raised its main policy rate by 50bp (to 4.75%), and further rate hikes are likely in the near term as the central bank looks to support the currency and clamp down on inflation... 20th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Case for policy tightening won’t become compelling The Bank of Japan will revise up its near-term inflation forecasts in next week’s Outlook report. But by predicting that inflation will fall below target again over the next couple of years, it will... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
