Japan Data Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q4 2022) & Machinery Orders (Oct. 2022) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is going from strength to strength, the outlook for the manufacturing sector continues to worsen. Meanwhile, machinery orders were flat in... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q4 22) & Machinery Orders (Oct. 22) 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy tightening unlikely despite soaring inflation We expect the Bank of Japan to stick to its assessment that the recent surge in inflation won’t be sustained at the upcoming meeting. Accordingly, the Bank won’t respond with tighter policy. 13th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fixed-rate expiry large shock to household finances The full impact of the RBA’s aggressive tightening cycle on household finances hasn’t been felt yet because one-third of all mortgages have fixed-rates. Around 60% of those will expire next year and... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Food import price aftershocks to affect 2023 We expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target through the middle of next year despite government utility price caps and falling non-food inflation over that period. One reason is... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Credit growth has now reversed all of its modest acceleration over the past year, a clear sign that monetary easing has failed to gain traction due to virus disruption and waning confidence among... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal support, boost for property, vaccination stepping up Next week’s Economic Work Conference will set the tone for policy for the coming year. Early signs are that fiscal support will be expanded while constraints on property developers will be further... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gujarat election, semiconductors, Q1 Outlook The BJP’s huge win in the Gujarat state election could convince the ruling national party that it currently has enough electoral clout to push ahead with difficult structural reforms. Meanwhile... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumers will struggle next year The strong rise in services spending in October suggests that consumers are finally learning to live with the virus so a rebound in Q4 GDP looks very likely. But with real incomes slumping, that... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth slowdown will dampen price pressures Australia’s economy continued to expand at a robust pace last quarter and there are mounting signs that the tight labour market is boosting wage growth. That suggests that the RBA isn’t done... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Consumer price inflation dropped to its lowest in eight months in November and producer price inflation stayed at a 23-month low. The shift away from zero-COVID could put some upward pressure on... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
