Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 22) The slowdown in household spending in November largely reflects base effects from the ending of lockdowns in 2021. Even so, the data suggest that household spending may have started to fall last... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Increasing doubt over Yield Curve Control’s longevity In less than two months, we should know who will replace Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko, whose term ends on 8th April. Whoever replaces him will be under increasing pressure from the... 9th January 2023 · 11 mins read
China Economics Update Reopening’s impact on inflation in China and abroad The shift toward living with COVID will put some upward pressure on prices in China. But the uptick in inflation will not be as large as that seen in many other countries as they emerged from COVID... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Another look at the PMI conundrum The PMI surveys for December released this week suggest that India’s economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of 2022. But they are at odds with several other indicators that point to a slowdown... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Already past the worst? New COVID infections across much of China may already be dropping back just as quickly as they surged only a month ago. Shops and streets are getting busier. A full return to normality is probably... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the Hong Kong dollar Downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar has abated in recent weeks and we think it is very unlikely that the existing currency framework will be abandoned any time soon. In view of the wider... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing slumping, but tourism set to rebound Industrial production probably recorded the largest fall since the slump at the start of the pandemic last quarter. Q4 GDP will nonetheless rebound, helped by a strong recovery in services activity... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China reopening, price pressures moderating The dismantling of China’s Zero-Covid regime will encourage more Chinese tourists and students to come to Australia and New Zealand. That could eventually boost Australia’s GDP by nearly 1%-pt, though... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Nov. 22) The sharp slowdown in wage growth in November was mostly due to a plunge in volatile bonus payments and wage growth will rebound over the coming months. 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Exit Kuroda, exit YCC? The nomination of a less dovish candidate to succeed BoJ Governor Kuroda would probably signal that Yield Curve Control will soon be abandoned, though we would still expect the Bank to keep its short... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s manufacturing and services PMI readings rose to multi-month highs in December but are at odds with the hard activity data that point to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities to ease a touch in 2023 India’s current account deficit is likely to have widened to 3% of GDP in 2022, the largest in a decade. We expect the deficit to narrow slightly in 2023 as commodity prices ease and domestic demand... 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs across the region rose slightly in December but remained weak overall. We continue to expect weaker global demand, high inflation and interest rates to drag on manufacturing ahead. 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the reopening wave delivered another blow to the economy in December. Services activity looks to have slumped. Industry was not spared, although the hit appears more... 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
