Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The further easing in headline CPI inflation in December to a 12-month low of 5.7% y/y supports our view that the tightening cycle is in its final throes. We expect just one more hike in the repo rate... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Consumer price inflation ticked up in December, while producer price deflation eased. There are some early signs that the transition toward living with COVID is starting to put upward pressure on... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov. 22) The trade balance widened to a five-month high in November even though import prices outpaced export prices last quarter, which suggests that net trade provided a sizeable boost to Q4 GDP growth. 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Nov. 22) 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily More good news in China may boost other EM equities further We think some emerging markets’ stock markets could continue to outperform if the economic picture in China continues to improve. 11th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the BoJ gearing up to scrap yield curve control? 1674028800 Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is finally moving to end its yield curve control (YCC) regime following December’s surprise policy tweak.
Bank of Japan Watch Counting down the clock on Yield Curve Control The widening of the Bank’s tolerance band around 10-year yields has done little to improve market functioning while the government seems to be pressing for a policy shift in response to higher... 11th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Job Vacancies (Nov. 22) While falling job vacancies point to rising unemployment, the resilience in retail sales coupled with stubbornly high inflation will prompt the RBA to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike next... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Inflation & Retail Sales (Nov. 22) 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of China’s ongoing re-opening The speed of China’s ongoing reopening, and how quickly the country’s economy seems to have absorbed its impact, has surprised many and prompted big moves in the country’s financial markets. We think... 10th January 2023 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The downturn in credit growth extended in December amid the economic disruption from reopening. But the worst of the disruption may have already passed. The shift toward living with COVID and policy... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
