Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec.) China’s statistics bureau claims that GDP was unchanged q/q in Q4. That is implausible, even accounting for December data showing surprising economic resilience in the face of the reopening wave of... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The drop in Indian wholesale price inflation for the sixth month in a row in December further reinforces our view that the MPC will draw the tightening cycle to a close after one more rate hike in its... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The end of Yield Curve Control could boost the yen further An end to Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy looks increasingly likely, in our view, which could push the yen even higher. 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly No wall of money but still plenty of upside for spending Tuesday’s retail sales data are likely to show that spending plunged as COVID crashed through China last month. But December was an age ago. The focus for investors now is on the speed of the recovery... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our financial market forecasts for China We have revised up our forecasts for equities in China, given a brighter outlook for the economy there. We have also increased our China 10-year sovereign bond yield forecast for end-2023, as we think... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s re-opening and currency markets While the medium-term outlook for the renminbi and other Asian currencies has improved, and we have revised some of our forecasts accordingly, we continue to anticipate that a deterioration in risk... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to rebound this year Commodity imports generally rose in December, but fell in 2022 as a whole. In a possible sign of optimism around reopening, soybean imports skyrocketed. China’s unexpectedly swift switch to living... 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee policies: solutions in need of problems Policymakers in India have been talking up prospects for the rupee settlement mechanism as well as the recently-piloted central bank digital currency, the so-called "e-rupee". But while there are... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: tightening cycle over, rate cuts later this year The Bank of Korea today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 3.50%) and relatively dovish comments by Governor Rhee support our view that the tightening cycle is now over. With growth set to... 13th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Dec.) China’s exports contracted year-on-year in December by the most since the Wuhan lockdown in early 2020. Imports held up slightly better but are still depressed. Inbound shipments should start to... 13th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Price pressures broadening, 10-year yields at 0.5% There are early signs that the surge in “core” goods inflation is running out of steam, but services inflation is strengthening. Services inflation won’t accelerate fast enough to offset the coming... 13th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do With inflation remaining stubbornly high and consumption resilient, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to hike interest rates for a while yet. However, there are some early signs that the... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
