FX Markets Update Stronger yen still on the cards despite the BoJ’s obstinance While the Bank of Japan pushed back against expectations that it would end its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy yesterday, we think it is only a matter of time before YCC bites the dust. That suggests... 19th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economic fracturing in 2023 – new year, new risks The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Tightening cycle over Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 5.75%) but also appeared to signal there would be no further rate increases this year. We are changing our forecast in response... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Dismal 2022 makes way for a stronger 2023 Our China Activity Proxy suggests that output was still depressed at the end of 2022, though it held up surprisingly well in the face of a huge reopening wave of infections. With the virus situation... 19th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Rates on hold, tightening cycle likely over Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%), but appeared to leave open the possibility of further rate hikes later in the year. However, with... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2022) The labour market struggled in December and the unemployment rate has started to rise. With economy activity set to slow sharply, t won’t be long before unemployment increases in earnest. 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Dec. 2022) While the trade deficit narrowed further in December, most of that reflects falling import prices. Export volumes likely fell slightly and with the global downturn weighing on external demand, export... 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 22) 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is China’s stock market still relatively appealing? The powerful re-opening rally in China’s stock market has eroded a large part of the valuation gap that led us to judge that equities there were relatively appealing a couple of months ago. That said... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar and yen may benefit from weak global economy The latest signs that the US economy is losing momentum seem to have driven a risk-off mood in markets today, with equities struggling and the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen reversing earlier... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4) Taiwan’s economy unexpectedly contracted in Q4, driven by a sharp fall in exports. We expect the economy to remain weak over the coming quarters as exports struggle amid a global recession and higher... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update New Governor will ditch Yield Curve Control in April The BoJ kept policy settings unchanged today, but the increase in its medium-term inflation forecasts supports our view that Yield Curve Control will be abandoned once a new Governor takes over in... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
