Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Services inflation will remain stubbornly high With labour productivity falling the most on record over the past year, unit labour cost growth has surged even as hourly earnings growth has remained sluggish. While we expect productivity growth to... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q4 may mark the trough, only weak recovery ahead There are tentative signs in recent data that the slump in Asian goods exports may be nearing an end and that, after a dreadful performance at the end of 2022, GDP in much of the region may have... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Making sense of the activity data The economy appears to have held up a touch better than we had anticipated at the start of this year, mirroring the trend in several other major economies. Q4 is likely to have marked the trough for q... 3rd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the growth target The GDP growth target for 2023 will be revealed on Sunday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. There is speculation that it could be raised relative to last year but we think that’s... 3rd March 2023 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy headed for recession We're expecting industrial production to rebound strongly in February. Even so, industrial output will still slump this quarter, pointing to a larger q/q fall in Q1 GDP than we’re forecasting. However... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control could be abandoned this month Yield Curve Control is on counted time and the key question is not if but when it will be abandoned. The Bank could wait until Kazuo Ueda becomes Governor in April. But given that this risks another... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 23) The unemployment fell slightly in January but we’re still expecting it to rise through mid-year due to an economic downturn. Meanwhile, energy inflation fell by less than we expected in Tokyo as... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Policy to remain tight as Pakistan eyes IMF deal Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) raised its policy rate by 300bps (to 20.0%) today, and signalled monetary policy would remain tight as policymakers look to secure a loan deal with the IMF and tackle... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jan. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 2023) 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think China’s “reopening trade” has further to go We think the reopening rally in China’s equity market and currency has further to run this year. 1st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event China Drop-In: The National People’s Congress and China’s economic outlook 1678107600 The annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress began this weekend with the publication of key economic targets for the coming year.
RBA Watch RBA will lift cash rate to 4.1% The RBA adopted a more hawkish tone at its February meeting and we expect it to hike the cash rate to 4.1% by May. But with recent economic data mostly surprising to the downside, we still see a good... 1st March 2023 · 8 mins read
