Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think China’s “reopening trade” has further to go We think the reopening rally in China’s equity market and currency has further to run this year. 1st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event China Drop-In: The National People’s Congress and China’s economic outlook 1678107600 The annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress began this weekend with the publication of key economic targets for the coming year.
RBA Watch RBA will lift cash rate to 4.1% The RBA adopted a more hawkish tone at its February meeting and we expect it to hike the cash rate to 4.1% by May. But with recent economic data mostly surprising to the downside, we still see a good... 1st March 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Feb.) Manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose in February, helped by a rebound in the export orders sub-component. While the data provide the first tentative signs that the worst may be over for the region... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged down in February to a four-month low. We expect the reading to drop further over the coming months as both external and domestic demand soften. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Feb.) The latest survey data are exceptionally strong across the board, consistent with our expectation for a rapid near-term rebound. We expect this recovery to lose momentum later in the year but the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Although the decline in house prices slowed markedly in February, we’re not convinced the worst is over. As such, we expect house prices to fall by another 6% before the year is up. 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) GDP growth softened last quarter and inflation slowed sharply in January. But with inflation still very high, that won’t prevent the RBA from hiking the cash rate to a peak of 4.1% in May. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP data for Q4 (Q3 of FY22/23) show that India’s economy came off the boil at the end of last year as higher interest rates weighed on household consumption and investment. But with the hawks still... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack A near-term fiscal boost Local governments have stepped up their borrowing since the start of the year. They issued RMB860bn in special bonds over the course of January and February, up from an average of RMB105bn per month... 28th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jan. 2023) & GDP Partials (Q4 2022) While retail sales bounced back in January, the rebound probably won’t be enough to prevent a contraction in sales volumes across the first quarter. 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan. 23) We suspect that the early start to the Lunar New Year was partly responsible for the sharp fall in industrial production in January and there should be a strong rebound in February. Meanwhile, retail... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
