India Economic Outlook Near-term softness, long-term optimism The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early... 20th March 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tightening cycles nearing their end Both the RBA and the RBNZ have more work to do to rein in the recent surge in inflation. That aggressive monetary tightening is starting to take its toll on economic activity and we expect GDP growth... 20th March 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China has its own banking sector vulnerabilities China’s financial system has limited direct exposure to foreign banks. But recent global banking strains still pose some downside risk to the country’s economy. And China’s banking sector has... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Asia continue to ride out the global storm? The impact of the current turmoil on Emerging Asia has so far been relatively small, and most currencies have appreciated against the US dollar over the past week. Large current account surpluses mean... 17th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update RRR cut not a major easing move The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR). This will provide a bit of financial relief for China’s large and medium-sized banks. It may also help nudge down... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly SVB and Credit Suisse fallout, April rate hike For India, the fallout from the SVB collapse and Credit Suisse crisis has been limited. The big unknown is whether banking sector problems will flare up elsewhere. At the aggregate level, the Indian... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will shrug off market jitters Amid signs of trouble in the global banking system, markets believe that the RBA is done tightening and that rate cuts will be on the cards soon. However, with domestic demand showing few signs of... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Less short-term pressure on Yield Curve Control The case for abandoning Yield Curve Control (YCC) has weakened further. The recent troubles at US regional banks and Credit Suisse should further reduce already easing pressure on the 10-year JGB... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: no further rate hikes Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged (at 5.75%), and signalled that with inflation falling back more quickly than expected, rates would be left on hold over the coming months. In... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 23) February’s strong labour force figures will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to press ahead with another 25bp hike at its April meeting despite mounting signs of strain in the global banking... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Jan. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in February as export volumes picked up and import volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders surprised to the upside in January, but that still points to a fall in... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 23) 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2022) With the New Zealand economy in for more pain on the heels of the Q4 GDP decline, we expect the RBNZ to start cutting rates towards the end of the year. 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
