Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to start cutting rates by year-end High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China... 24th March 2023 · 35 mins read
India Economics Weekly Long-term manufacturing hopes brewing The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly No signs of stress in Japan’s financial markets There has so far been no sign of stress in Japan’s financial markets as a result of the banking crises in the US and the demise of Credit Suisse. Meanwhile, the government has announced another... 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 22) March’s flash PMIs corroborate our view that the economy will see a mild recession this year. The manufacturing PMI improved but was still contractionary, as demand remained weak. Meanwhile a further... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2023) Government energy subsidies took 1%-pt off headline inflation last month, but the rise in underlying inflation to a four-decade high underscores the strength in price pressures. The data point to a... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Surprise hike in Taiwan, but cuts still likely in late 2023 In a surprise move, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.875%), but with the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures set to ease further, we think... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: one more hike left in the tightening cycle The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today slowed the pace of tightening as it raised its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and hinted that the tightening cycle was now approaching an end... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What does the recent banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? 1680163200 Although the recent flare-up of financial stability concerns has been a US-Europe story, its reverberations could be global.
India Chart Pack Vulnerabilities lurk in the banking sector Spill-overs from the turmoil in the global banking system to India have been limited so far, but the big unknown is whether difficulties will flare up at home. Bank problems can arise via multiple... 22nd March 2023 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: Difficult times ahead despite IMF deal The deal announced yesterday between Sri Lanka and the IMF should eventually pave the way for a sustained economic recovery. However, the tough conditions being imposed as part of the agreement mean... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Quantifying the risks from banks’ foreign claims With bond yields now dropping back again, the drag from unrealised losses on banks’ capital ratios should start to reverse. However, a sharp increase in losses on banks’ foreign loan portfolio has yet... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
