China Economics Update New fiscal package being lined up China’s finance ministry appears to be lining up a fiscal support package to deliver on the Politburo’s pledge of additional support for the economy. If a report by Reuters is correct, the package... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have rebounded over recent weeks amid the start of the Fed’s easing cycle. Looking ahead, we expect EM inflows to hold up well as global monetary conditions ease further. In... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 · 44 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Sep. 24) The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It acknowledges that new problems have emerged in the Chinese economy recently and calls... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (September 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6.0-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which... 25th September 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 2024) The Reserve Bank of Australia will look past the sharp fall in headline inflation in August, given that the plunge was driven in large part government energy rebates. That said, the fact that... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Policy support won’t be enough to drive growth Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed in August, with construction seeing the sharpest deceleration. Alongside today’s monetary easing, an uptick in fiscal spending will help keep the... 24th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stimulus may not offer a lasting boost to stocks Policymakers in China announced major monetary and financial policy stimulus measures today, but we doubt these will be enough to drive a sustained rebound in China’s struggling stock market. 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut rates in first half of next year The RBA didn’t discuss a rate hike at today’s meeting for the first time since March but reiterated its pledge that it won’t cut interest rates “in the near-term”. While the risks are starting to tilt... 24th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Incoming PM unlikely to veto further rate hikes The government tried to prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates in 2000 but that attempt was unsuccessful and the government has respected the Bank’s independence ever since. Renewed... 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Stimulus package a step in the right direction In a departure from their previous approach of drip-feeding piecemeal support measures, China’s financial regulators have just announced a coordinated package of stimulus measures. This is a step in... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
