Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the recovery so far Mixed recent data have fuelled an inconclusive debate about the strength of China’s economic rebound and how much need there is for additional policy support. In our view, most evidence suggests that... 14th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines straddling US-China rift, IMF too optimistic So far, the Philippines appears to be successfully straddling the geopolitical divide as it tries to improve its political and military ties with the US, while also building on its strong economic... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly 1,425,775,850 and counting According to UN projections, India will today replace China as home to the world’s largest population. The key to unlocking this immense demographic potential is to develop the manufacturing sector... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Migration boom won’t be inflationary Concerns that the ongoing surge in net overseas migration to Australia will fuel demand-pull inflation are overblown, especially with the population still below its pre-virus trend. To the contrary, a... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS keeps policy settings on hold as economy contracts The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy on hold today and with the economy set to struggle and inflation likely to fall sharply over the coming quarters we expect today’s decision to... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowing wage growth dampens inflation hopes Governor Ueda said this week he will be watching if wage growth can be sustained at a level that will support inflation at or above target. So far, the signs aren’t encouraging. Wage growth has fallen... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports probably close to a peak China’s commodity imports generally rose strongly in March which we think reflects higher demand as a result of the re-opening of the economy. While April data may also be strong, we expect import... 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Mar.) China’s exports unexpectedly jumped last month. But we aren’t convinced that this rebound will be sustained given the still gloomy outlook for foreign demand. Imports fell short of expectations but... 13th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 23) The strength in March’s labour market data will probably prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a final 25bp rate hike next month, but unemployment will rise before long. 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 23) 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation back to within the RBI’s 2-6% target range in March supports our view that the central bank’s hiking cycle has come to an end. 12th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Event China Drop-In: How strong is the post-lockdown Chinese recovery? 1681804800 China’s Q1 “data dump” on 18th April will provide the broadest take so far of the economy’s performance following the end of zero-COVID restrictions.
Japan Chart Pack Governor Ueda to cull YCC as his first act Japan has escaped the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland relatively unscathed. While banks face some risks arising from their lending exposure overseas, there are no signs of liquidity... 12th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2023) The fall in “core” machinery orders in February is another bearish signal on business investment last quarter. Domestic machine tool orders suggest a further fall in March, but even if “core”... 12th April 2023 · 2 mins read
