India Economics Update Economic implications of the heatwave Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and the tone of its statement supports our view that rates will be left unchanged throughout 2024. The... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Philippines GDP (Q1) GDP growth in the Philippines slowed in Q1 and we expect further weakness over the rest of the year as tight monetary policy, slower growth in remittances and weaker export demand weigh on activity. 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Apr. 2024) Export values returned to growth last month after contracting in March, but this was mainly due to a lower base for comparison. Export volumes were little changed in April following a pullback in the... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflationary pressures in the labour market set to chill All signs are that unit labour cost growth in New Zealand will plummet in the coming quarters. Coupled with subdued domestic demand, that should feed through to lower non-tradables inflation in short... 9th May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s export success also due to weakness at home China’s leadership argues that the country’s export success in industries like auto production is a reflection of its technological strength. It understandably doesn’t want to focus on another factor... 8th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The balancing act of a stronger yen for Japan’s markets We expect Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to rise a bit and the yen to come off the boil later this year, creating a headwind for equities there. 8th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA continues to eye its so-called “narrow path” The RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold at its meeting today suggests that there is a high bar for any further tightening of monetary policy. Indeed, the Board seems keen on minimising the... 7th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2024) 7th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q1 2024) The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth in Indonesia remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity... 6th May 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly What would Trump’s return mean for India? With Donald Trump’s protectionist approach to trade on full display this week, we look at the implications of a possible second Trump presidency for India. While a 10% tariff on US imports could dent... 3rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Developer financing still weak, green loans surge The continued weakness of credit demand is holding back China's economic recovery. While lending to manufacturers continues to be strong – particularly for those engaged in green technology production... 3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea: a weak start to the second quarter In response to the stronger-than-expected first quarter GDP figures, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee this week hinted that the central bank would revise up its GDP growth forecast (from 2.1%) for this... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may keep hiking even if inflation target isn’t met Even though the economic case for preventing the yen from sliding is much weaker, the Ministry of Finance seems to have responded with an even more forceful round of foreign exchange interventions... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read