Europe Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle probably at an end We think that the decision today by Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% signals the end of its tightening cycle. Contrary to the Bank’s communication, we do not expect a hike in... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB on a high, Riksbank seeking bailout This week’s decision by the ECB to leave interest rates on hold is likely to be the first of many – we think rates will remain at their current levels until the second half of next year. Meanwhile... 27th October 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Stable Swiss politics supports the economic outlook Switzerland’s government looks set to remain largely unchanged after the federal elections this Sunday, and we do not expect a significant change in economic policy. But voters’ grievances about the... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic industrial rents to outpace euro-zone next year Industrial rental growth in the Nordics is set to slow in 2024. But a brighter macroeconomic outlook and tight vacancy will help rent growth to outperform the euro-zone. Further ahead, the current... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising oil prices won’t cause the ECB to hike rates The increase in oil prices over the past few months will have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation, so it won't alter the outlook for monetary policy. We still expect that the ECB will keep its... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly China EV investigation, ECB done with hikes The European Commission’s decision to launch an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies underlines policymakers’ resolve to slow China’s rapid ascent in the market. But any measures taken are unlikely... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank has one more hike to go We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.25%, and signal that its tightening cycle is over. It is then likely to will wait until around the... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to follow ECB lead next week The Riksbank looks all but certain to follow the ECB’s example and raise its key policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%. However, while that could mark the end of its tightening cycle, on balance we... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish politics, Swiss industrial production This week saw Spain take a tentative step towards forming a new government, but there is a long way to go, and another general election may yet be needed. We also learnt this week that Swiss... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The slowdown in rent growth in the first half of this year is likely to persist... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Easing core inflation drove headline inflation lower in July, but we don’t expect it to fall much further this year. Despite inflation now sitting within the 0-2% range the SNB equates with price... 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Switzerland’s inflation spectre slain Swiss inflation has fallen sharply this year to below 2% and we expect it to stay there for the foreseeable future. In contrast to the SNB’s view, we think second-round effects on wages will be quite... 18th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 7th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) The fall in inflation in June was smaller than the SNB had expected and SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s comments after the meeting two weeks ago suggest a further hike in the policy rate in September is... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
