Europe Economics Update SNB to lead the G10 central banks in rate cuts Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think... 14th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank rate cuts inching closer Inflation in Norway has fallen more quickly than Norges Bank expected, so at next week’s meeting it is likely to signal that it will cut interest rates sooner than it previously expected, perhaps in... 14th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Drop back in office completions to support prime rents Completions in Europe are set to increase over the next year or so as construction delays unwind, which will contribute to rising vacancy. However, we expect the upward pressure from supply to ease... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital... 23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) Property valuations improved in Q4 on the back of further rises in property yields and falls in alternative asset yields. This resulted in many office and retail markets shifting into fair value... 21st February 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Jan. 2024) January’s continued fall in core inflation in Norway, and renewed fall in the headline rate, support our view that price pressures will ease more quickly this year than Norges Bank is forecasting. We... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is... 8th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates in second half of year The Riksbank is set to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week but we think it will begin to cut rates in the second quarter and reduce them faster than policymakers are forecasting. 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential yields have further to rise The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank’s turn to hold We think Norges Bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% next week but, given the weakness in the krone and tight labour market, retain a hawkish bias in its guidance. Further ahead, we think... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (Dec. 2023) The fact that core inflation fell and the headline rate was unchanged in December confirms that Norges Bank’s most recent interest rate hike will have been the last in this tightening cycle. We think... 10th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The unexpected increase in Swiss inflation in December raises some doubt as to whether rates will be cut soon. However, we suspect that the headline rate will drop back sharply in January due to base... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s central banks push back against rate cut bets In contrast to the Fed, the ECB pushed back this week against expectations that it would start to cut interest rates in early 2024. But we still think that a weak economy and continued declines in... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
