Europe Economics Update Dovish rate cut by Riksbank, more to follow We think the Riksbank will follow today’s 25bp rate cut with a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year to take the policy rate to 2.75%. But we expect the terminal rate to be 2.5% which... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2024) Alongside the Riksbank’s decision to reduce the policy rate by 25bp today to 3.5%, policymakers also lowered their rate expectation for the end of this year from either 3.25% or 3.0% at the June... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank remains hawkish Norges Bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, at 4.5%, was never in doubt. However, we still suspect that continued declines in inflation will allow it to start cutting... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2024) Switzerland’s sporting event-adjusted GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in over a year and slightly above our forecast of 0.4%. At the margin this may give the SNB some... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates with more on the way Since the Riksbank’s last meeting in June, Swedish inflation and activity data have been weaker than policymakers expected. We think this will encourage them to cut the key policy rate from 3.75% to 3... 14th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will stick to hawkish tone for now Inflation in Norway has continued to fall more quickly than policymakers expected. But with the krone coming under renewed pressure recently, we think they will maintain a hawkish tone next week. 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong franc opens door to FX purchases and rate cuts Recent safe haven flows into the franc may have prompted limited FX interventions by the SNB. But we think that the policy rate will remain its main policy tool, even for dampening the franc’s... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six... 2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden GDP (Q2) Preliminary data released this morning show that the Swedish economy contracted by 0.8% q/q in Q2, more than offsetting the 0.7% increase in Q1. The data were significantly weaker than expected by... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (June) The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, dropped to just 1.3% in June, almost half the level in May and the lowest level since the end of 2020. This was far below the consensus forecast of 1... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (June 2024) The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with... 9th July 2024 · 1 min read
