Europe Economics Update

New forecasts for Swedish inflation and the Riksbank

During the coming months, we expect falling goods and energy inflation to pull down the headline inflation rate in Sweden. This should encourage policymakers to cut rates from 3.75% currently to 3.00%...

30th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2024)

Smaller property yield rises and still-solid rental growth left all-property capital values little changed in Q1, a notable improvement on the sharp falls seen since mid-2022. However, we think...

22nd May 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024)

Property valuations were little changed in Q1 2024, failing to build upon the considerable improvement in 2023. Property yields increased further, but the smaller rise failed to offset gains in...

16th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (April)

The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected (consensus 2...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (May 2024)

The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will grow only slowly in the coming quarters. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB has signalled...

9th May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Luxury rental growth to outperform mass market retail

The rebound in prime retail rents is set to wane this year. But we think prime rents on luxury high streets will continue to outperform those of mass markets in the coming years.

7th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Risks to Swiss inflation skewed to the downside

Many central banks are concerned about the fact that services inflation has remained too high. But we think the risks in Switzerland are skewed to the downside and, in our view, outweigh the upside...

2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (April)

The jump in Switzerland’s inflation rate in April was largely due to increases in the volatile food and fuel components. While the data increase our confidence that the SNB will not cut interest rates...

2nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Oslo offices to lead the way in Scandinavia

Prime office rent growth in Scandinavia is expected to moderate in the coming years as soft demand and rising supply push up vacancy. But having trailed the other Scandinavian cities in 2023, we think...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Swiss economy not as strong as first meets the eye

The resilience of Swiss GDP over the past two years has been largely due to the merchanting sector, which buys and sells goods without them ever entering Switzerland. Excluding that sector, the...

16th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

The latest data are consistent with our view that the euro-zone will remain close to recession in the near term. With the labour market softening and inflation continuing to fall, the ECB is very...

8th April 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Quasi-dovish Fed can’t keep the dollar down for long

The US dollar has bounced back from its brief drop after the FOMC’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference, and is ending the week stronger across the board. To some extent that is...

22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2

Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached...

21st March 2024 · 31 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB starts its loosening cycle, Norges Bank on hold

The SNB under Chairman Thomas Jordan has never shied away from making big calls, so it was fitting that it surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut today, to 1.5%, only three weeks after Mr Jordan...

21st March 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank eyeing May for first rate cut

We think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% next week but cut it by 25bp at the following meeting, in May. Beyond that, our forecast is for rates to come down much faster than...

20th March 2024 · 5 mins read