Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (June 2024)

The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with...

9th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (June)

Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing...

4th July 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls

The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank to leave rates and guidance unchanged

Having cut the policy rate by 25bp at its last meeting, we think the Riksbank will stick with its guidance that it will keep rates on hold next week. But with inflation likely to fall below 2% in the...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

On the mend

The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB cuts rates again, but likely to be last one this year

The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norges Bank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

Norges Bank’s verbal guidance and updated interest rate projections reinforce the message that it won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the year at the earliest.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024)

Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (May)

The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, remained at 2.3% in May, but the core measure (CPIF excluding energy) rose slightly for the second month in a row. We think the Riksbank will leave...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year

The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much...

13th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to stick to hawkish tone

Norges Bank will leave its policy rate at 4.5% next week and reiterate that rate cuts are some way off. We think it will wait until December to start loosening monetary policy.

13th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (June 2024)

The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read