Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The mixed set of manufacturing PMIs from January adds to signs that conditions in the Swedish industrial sector have turned the corner but indicate that activity in Switzerland remains stuck in a rut. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish krona has further to fall The recent run of positive economic data from Sweden did not prevent the krona from having its worst week against the euro since August. We forecast the currency to fall further, and to underperform... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank on hold; Franc rises to near 3-year high Political developments in Norway this past week are no game changer for the economic outlook; we suspect that monetary policy there will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. In contrast, we... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to follow the ECB down We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is... 22nd January 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB stuck between a rock and a hard place The re-inclusion of Switzerland on the US Treasury’s Monitoring List of potential currency manipulators this week was interpreted by investors as a shot across the bow of the SNB. However, we doubt... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to be forced to cut interest rates again The decision by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling five years ago coincided with it slashing interest rates to a record low to reduce the attractiveness of holding Swiss francs. Alas, this... 16th January 2020 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank leaves door ajar for rate hike reversal Having resumed its interventions to weaken the Swiss franc after the recent flare-up in geopolitical tensions, we think that it will only be a matter of time before a rate cut comes back on the agenda... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to watch for in 2020 Our big calls for 2020 are that economic growth and inflation will generally be weaker than the consensus expects, and that rates cuts are on the cards in Switzerland and Sweden. 23rd December 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK and SEK diverge; Riksbank to hike back to zero The weak Regional Network Survey triggered a sell-off in the Norwegian krone on Tuesday, but it has since made up all the ground that it lost, and more. We are comfortable with our forecast for it to... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Weak Swedish data; SNB to maintain the status quo The latest run of weak data from Sweden is unlikely to sway the Riksbank from hiking on the 19 th December, but only reaffirms our view that the Bank will have to loosen policy next year. We think... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Q3 GDP data are not a sign of things to come While Q3 GDP data from Switzerland and Sweden, released this week, were stronger than what we had pencilled in, they do not change our views on the outlooks for monetary policy in either case. We... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to hike back to zero; Finland losing steam While the Riksbank appears dead-set on raising its repo rate back to zero in December, we suspect that it will only be a matter of time before it will have to loosen policy again. Meanwhile, we expect... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Further rate cuts in the pipeline We expect the Riksbank and the Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold at their policy meetings this week. Elsewhere, we think that the Central Bank of Iceland will cut rates at its next meeting... 22nd October 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack NOK to fall further before reversing course next year While the Swiss and Swedish economies appear to have contracted in Q3, mainland GDP growth in Norway is chugging along nicely. And even though activity is set to slow in 2020, Norway will remain a... 17th October 2019 · 10 mins read
