Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Green bond germination in Denmark The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will resume hikes in March After twelve years in the job, Øystein Olsen was never going to spring a surprise at his last meeting in charge of the Norges Bank. Instead, the Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank to have to change tack The Riksbank has learnt from its past tendency to project rate hikes that never arrive. But the single repo rate rise by end-2024 that it currently projects is stretching the limits of plausibility in... 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gradual flexible office recovery underway Having been hit hard in 2020, improving economic conditions supported flexible office take-up in 2021, albeit caution and consolidation limited the net increase in space. While we expect take-up to... 17th January 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Estimating the carbon transition risk to property values Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly “Rate hike” Olsen to bow out with a whimper Norges Bank Governor Olsen has presided over more rate hikes (seven) than any other G10 bank head since he took the role in January 2011. But with the Bank set to leave rates on hold at his last... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in December will embolden the hawks at the Riksbank. While we expect energy effects will drop out this year, continued supply-chain problems and rising inflation... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to take pause, as Olsen bows out Norwegian policymakers will keep interest rates on hold, at +0.50%, next Thursday, before resuming their tightening cycle in March. We forecast one rate hike per quarter this year, which is one more... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to join tightening crowd later this year We expect policymakers in Denmark and Switzerland to match the 50bps of interest rate hikes that we now forecast in the euro-zone next year. And against the backdrop of rising global interest rates... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) While Norwegian policymakers do not have as laser-like a focus on consumer price inflation as most, the increase in the core rate in Norway in December only lends support to our hawkish view that the... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nationalbank getting stuck in ahead of likely rate cut Following the chunky DKK 47 billion intervention by Denmark’s Nationalbank in December to weaken the krone, we suspect that the bar for a rate cut has already been cleared comfortably. So while many... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Key calls for Switzerland and the Nordics in 2022 We think that GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordics will be slower than most anticipate this year, and the boosts to inflation from energy prices will subside over the year. But while the SNB will... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden ETI (Dec.) The resilience of the ETI in December underlines that the Swedish economy is comparatively well-placed going into 2022. All told, the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its so-far dovish stance is... 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
