Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish labour data point to further rate hikes Data for Sweden show that the labour market remained tight in September. Together with the recent strong inflation numbers this suggests that there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riskbank’s... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s housing market, Swiss price pressures Data released this week show that the Riksbank is in a tricky situation, with consumer price inflation accelerating but the housing market looking very weak. Other data suggest that core inflation in... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) The large increase in inflation in September, to 10.8%, confirms that the Riksbank will press on with its rapid monetary policy tightening. For now we have assumed that rates will peak at 2.5% in... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggles, Danish central bank intervenes A raft of economic data for Sweden, including August’s GDP indicator, published this week added to the evidence that its economy is slowing and heading for recession this winter. Meanwhile, Denmark’s... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss and Nordic economies heading south This week we got yet more data showing that economies in the region are slowing. Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator for September plummeted and suggested that growth has abruptly stalled, and... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly A trio of hawkish central banks In what has proven to be an action-packed week for major central banks, those in the Nordics and the SNB kept their end up and delivered historically large rate rises. And despite the surveys... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stable inflation expectations little comfort for Riksbank Even as Swedish headline inflation surged again in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since late 1991, the stability of long-term inflation expectations will provide some comfort to... 16th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Bumper rate hikes on the way Next week, we expect the Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank to raise interest rates aggressively. The SNB and the Riksbank both look set to raise rates by 75bp, and we would not rule out a... 15th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Price pressures to keep central banks in hawkish mood Consumer price inflation has continued to accelerate in Switzerland and across the Nordics, adding to the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. In Switzerland... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Central banks in hawkish mood The ECB isn't the only European central bank in hawkish mood - we expect aggressive rate hikes from the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank later this month. Meanwhile, this weekend's general election in... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Flodén eyeing faster rate rises One does not need to be Nostradamus to see that Martin Flodén will espouse stepping up the pace of monetary tightening when the Executive Board of the Riksbank convenes again, in September. While our... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway and Switzerland still thriving Data published this week show that –in contrast to Germany – Norway and Switzerland’s economies are continuing to perform well. But rising inflation will force central banks in both countries to... 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway faces its own energy crisis While Norway is not directly in the firing line from the reduction in Russia’s gas exports, it has now got its own problems with low water levels in its hydro reservoirs. This may add a bit to Norway... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo rate by a... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
