Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch End of the tightening cycle approaching We expect the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 2.75%. Signs that the economy is weakening by more than expected might encourage policymakers to nudge down their interest rate... 8th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to end tightening cycle with 50bp hike The SNB is likely to look through the recent fall in inflation and hike rates by 50bp next Thursday, to 1.0%, in line with market expectations. We now think that this will be the end of the tightening... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Tweaking our forecast for Switzerland With recent data suggesting that the Swiss economy is holding up better than we had anticipated, we now think GDP will be unchanged in 2023 compared to this year. That would still imply a weaker... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Nov.) The low inflation rate in November supports our view that the Swiss National Bank will not need to raise interest rates much further in the current cycle. Indeed, there is a growing chance that... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q3) After increasing by 0.2% q/q in Q3, the Swiss economy is set to slow in Q4, although any recession will probably be shallower than we had previously expected, and shallower than in neighbouring... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank risks; Norway’s labour market tight The Riksbank’s 75bp hike on Thursday, together with the increases to its interest rates forecasts, highlighted policymakers’ concerns about inflation. Meanwhile, data from Norway emphasized the... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tightening cycle not yet finished This morning’s 75bp increase in the Riksbank’s policy rate was in line with expectations, and both the press statement and Monetary Policy Report are consistent with our view that policymakers will... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Sweden Riksbank Policy Meeting (Nov. 2022) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Property yields jump Prime property yields rose significantly in Q3. This caused a sharp slowdown in capital value growth, even though rental growth was solid in the Scandinavian office and industrial sectors. Stockholm... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway performing well, Ingves bows out Norway’s Q3 GDP data support our view that the country will be one of Europe’s best performers in the coming quarters, but it won’t be immune to the weakness elsewhere in the continent. Next week, we... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Governor Ingves to go out with a (75bp) bang With inflation still more than five times the Riksbank’s target, Stefan Ingves may be tempted to end his marathon stint as Governor with another 100bp rate hike. But we think the Bank is more likely... 17th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) Another bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation, to 7.9% in October, will keep the Riksbank focused on slowing demand when policymakers meet next week. We expect a further 75bp rate hike, to 2... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Housing risks rising; strong activity in Sweden Policymakers at the Riksbank and Norges Bank face a tricky balancing act. The latest housing indicators from Sweden and Norway have been very weak, implying that prices will fall. But October’s... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s stronger-than-expected inflation data pose an upside risk to our forecast for the policy rate to peak at 3%. But with house prices falling, the Norges Bank faces a tricky balancing act. 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle nearly over Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to slow the pace of rate hikes is the beginning of the end for its tightening cycle. But we don’t expect a pivot towards interest rate cuts next year. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
