Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4) Norway’s mainland economy put in a much better performance in Q4 than the central bank expected and ended the year with a healthy expansion in December. Together with the continued strength in... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jan.) The rise in Swiss headline inflation will be of less concern to SNB policymakers than the increase in the core rate to its highest level on record. However, we do not think these increases are the... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Erik Thedéen makes a splash The new Riskbank Governor has opened his account with a hawkish policy shift and we now think the Bank’s policy rate will peak at 3.5% this year, rather than 3.0%. Nonetheless, we still think Sweden... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) The strength of consumer price inflation in January makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate at its next meeting in March, most likely by 25bp. And with house prices... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think bond yields will fall further despite QT Shrinking central bank balance sheets might push up “term premia” on long-dated government bonds, but we think their yields will nonetheless fall a bit further this year. 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high-beta DM currencies face near-term headwinds We expect “high-beta” developed market currencies to weaken against the dollar over the coming months as risk sentiment worsens and, in some cases, yield gaps move against them. But we anticipate a... 9th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Governor Thedéen puts his foot on the brakes The Riksbank’s 50bp rate hike today was expected but the decision to begin actively selling government bonds and the emphasis on the exchange rate were a surprise. Possibly this simply reflects the... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Meeting (February 2023) 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Property slump push Swedish inflation down The fact that Sweden’s inflation rate rose more than expected in November and December is a key reason why we expect the Riksbank to raise rates by 50bp next week. Looking further ahead, however, we... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank getting terminal With inflation and price pressures still high, the Riksbank will probably raise interest rates by 50bp next week. However, in contrast to the market, we think this will probably end the tightening... 2nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) Data published today show that the economy contracted by 0.6% q/q in Q4 as the resilience previously reported towards the end of last year has been revised away. With the more timely data for December... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we nearing a trough for Scandinavian investment? Near term economic headwinds suggest the slowdown in investment activity in Scandinavia will continue in 2023. However, with policy rates near a peak, and improving economic activity and falling bond... 23rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there... 20th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2023) 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening nearly over The Norges Bank eased off the brakes today by leaving policy on hold, but signalled that it will raise its policy rate at the next meeting in March. We suspect that will be the final hike in this... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
