Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to hike rates despite Credit Suisse crisis We think the SNB will push ahead with rate hikes despite the Credit Suisse crisis, and raise the policy rate by 50bp to 1.5% next Thursday. By its own exacting standards, inflationary pressures in... 16th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Feb.) Although it was partly due to higher food prices, the jump in the “core” measure of inflation in Sweden to 9.3% will reinforce policymakers’ determination to raise rates further. We expect another... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Massive SNB losses, rising Swiss inflation A closer look at Swiss inflation data for February suggests that underlying price pressures are higher than initially meets the eye. We think this will encourage the SNB to raise rates by at least... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time. 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Feb.) The CPI data for February suggest there is a long way to go before inflation returns to target especially as underlying prices pressures show no signs of abating, with the core inflation rate reaching... 6th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong franc is not the key to low Swiss inflation In our view, the Chairman of the SNB has over-stated the role of the exchange rate in explaining why inflation has remained so comparatively low in Switzerland in the past two years. However... 1st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q4) Despite stagnating in Q4, the Swiss economy remained notably bigger than its pre-pandemic level and has outperformed its European peers. We are forecasting a contraction in Q1 2023 and for the economy... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Values fall further The rise in prime property yields accelerated in Q4. Despite gains in all-property rents in most markets, this meant capital values fell across all sectors. Declines were particularly sharp in offices... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona focus could mean more Riksbank rate hikes We doubt that the Riksbank’s new-found concern for the krona will make much difference to the outlook for the currency - which will probably remain at the mercy of global developments. However, it is... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Property slump leading Sweden into recession Swedish house prices have fallen 18% from their peak and could drop by a further 5% or so from here. This should not cause significant financial stability problems but will be a major drag on economic... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes confirm hawkish shift, focus on SEK The minutes of the Riksbank’s latest policy meeting show that the previously dovish Executive Board members have become less so, and that the new members are on the hawkish side. That reinforces our... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation was largely due to a huge one-off drop in electricity prices but policymakers will focus more on the big increase in core inflation. This... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Higher inflation shows the SNB has further to go We now think that the SNB policy rate will peak at 1.75% this year, rather than 1.25%. Core inflation has risen for the last four months in succession and we think the SNB will be more hawkish than we... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s policy rate to rise above 3% The resilience of the economy and house prices, together with the strength of inflation, suggest that the Norges Bank will raise interest rates a bit further than we previously anticipated. We now... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
