Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024)

Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values...

21st November 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024)

Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports...

8th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Bumper cut today, but smaller cuts to follow

Today’s 50bp cut is likely to be the only one in the cycle for the Riksbank, and we expect it to cut by just 25bp at its next two meetings to take the policy rate to its “terminal” level of 2.25% in...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to start cutting in early 2025

Alongside its decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, Norges Bank reiterated that it expects to remain on hold in December too. It is likely to start cutting in Q1 next year and we suspect...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2024)

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 50bp today to 2.75%, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that it plans only two more 25bps rate cuts to take it to a “terminal” rate of 2.25%. Given...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (October)

Another larger-than-expected fall in both headline and core inflation in Switzerland will increase concerns that the country could temporarily enter deflation next year. This will pile on pressure on...

1st November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

One step at a time for the Riksbank

Despite the Riksbank reopening the door to a 50bp cut at its last meeting, we think it will proceed gradually and cut by 25bps next week to 3.0%. This is because the policy rate is approaching the...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to leave door open for December rate cut

Norway’s economy is struggling and inflation keeps falling faster than Norges Bank expects, yet the Bank has not started loosening policy. Next week we think it will open the door to a December rate...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden GDP (Q3)

Preliminary data show that Sweden’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the third quarter, far below the consensus expectation and the Riksbank’s forecasts (0.5% and 0.2% respectively). At face value...

29th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Deflation risk to hang over the SNB

We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (September 2024)

Core inflation in Norway was again below Norges Bank’s forecast in September, strengthening the case for it to start cutting interest rates this year.

10th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Consumption to drive Sweden’s recovery

Sweden’s economy is likely to see a strong rebound next year as consumption will benefit from fiscal stimulus and lower household interest expenditure. We think that the recovery will encourage the...

9th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden CPI (September)

September’s drop in inflation in Sweden will reinforce the Riksbank’s inclination to keep cutting interest rates at the next few meetings.

8th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another...

4th October 2024 · 1 min read