Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The World in 2023: The outlook for commodity prices We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in many major economies. That said, we expect a relatively shallow recession... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Falling Russian supply to keep oil prices high in 2023 We think slower global economic activity and a somewhat stronger US dollar will weigh on commodities prices in the coming months. However, the recession should prove relatively shallow and we expect... 5th December 2022 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to call a price rally Commodity prices surged late in the week on the back of a slump in the US dollar, a fall in US real yields and some easing of COVID-related restrictions in China. However, we doubt that this heralds... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver prices to rise next year Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to remain high Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and... 31st October 2022 · 41 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dance to the dollar’s tune Most commodity prices tracked the US dollar this week, falling sharply at the start of the week before staging a partial recovery in the latter half. Further dollar appreciation is likely given that... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in a tug of war This week, commodity prices continued to be caught in the middle of an ongoing tug of war between tight supply and deteriorating demand. We ultimately expect that to play out in two different ways... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
What to make of gold’s resistance to the surge in TIPS yields We suspect that the reduced liquidity of inflation-protected Treasuries vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts is one reason why the price of gold has not fallen as much as might have been expected... 14th October 2022 · 5 mins read
