Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why have Turkish exports performed so badly? The weakness of Turkish exports over the first half of this year can in part be pinned on temporary factors including bad weather, strikes in the automobile sector and problems in major trading... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to benefit from risk of industrial unrest The slump in platinum prices to the lowest level in over six years has forced South Africa’s mining companies to restructure, leading to job cuts. With the situation between labour unions and miners... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China's gold imports (Jun.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in June after a strong May. However, we expect total imports by China and India to pick up in the second half of the year as low prices attract a... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will central banks continue to buy gold? Central banks have become major buyers of gold, accounting on average for about 10% of total gold demand over the past five years. The primary driver of central banks’ gold buying continues to be... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold go? In an earlier Precious Metals Update, “Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold” (13 th March), we suggested that the gold price could fall as low as $850 per ounce in a worst case scenario... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What are global auto sales telling us about PGM demand? Despite slowing auto sales in China, we believe autocatalyst demand for platinum and palladium will increase by at least 3% in 2015, helping to underpin our positive view on the prices of both metals... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment towards commodities tanks Broad-based weakness saw industrial commodity price indices slip between mid-June and mid-July. The S&P GSCI agriculture index bucked the trend, although it too has eased back recently. What’s more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to recover when higher US interest rates priced in We think that sentiment towards gold is now excessively negative. Nonetheless, given the difficulty in valuing an asset that pays no income and the importance of safe-haven demand, which is also... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities struggle as dollar dominates Losers again outweighed winners this week. Oil dropped in anticipation of the easing of sanctions on Iran, although the near-term prospects for prices may depend more on sentiment towards China and... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s gold accumulation has further to go Today’s confirmation that China has added to its official holdings of gold since 2009 is not necessarily bullish for prices. This is buying that has already taken place and the increase was (arguably)... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Limited scope for further falls in prices Over the past month, precious metal (PM) prices have slumped as the correction in equity prices in China damaged confidence in global commodity markets while investors shrugged off the threat that... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (May) Global central banks continued to buy gold for diversification purposes in May. Buying was mostly concentrated among emerging markets’ central banks, with Russia once again particularly active. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ouch! Commodity investors could be forgiven for a huge sigh of relief that this week is over. The combination of the crisis in Greece and – especially – worries about the fallout from the slump in China’s... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports (Apr.) US silver imports rose sharply in April, suggesting strong appetite from the second biggest consumer. Indeed, the US Mint ran out of coins last week as investors bought on falling prices. However, a... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (May) After a strong start to the year, South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell substantially in May. This underpins our view that continued power disruptions, coupled with an increased... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What next for silver? The price of silver has been a notable casualty of the sell-off in commodity markets in the last few days. This is in line with the traditional pattern of under-performance by silver when the prices... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
