Commodities Update Divergence with the dollar unlikely to last In the last month, commodity prices have risen or held steady, despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. We think that the long-run inverse relationship will be restored in the second half of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in focus It has been a busy week on the news front. The early part of the week was dominated by the political crisis in Italy, which weighed on the euro. Later in the week, President Trump announced that he... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities shrug off the stronger dollar Commodity price indices surged in May despite a jump in the US dollar. Oil prices got a boost from the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran which threaten to reduce oil output by up to 1m bpd... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Rally in US steel prices to prove self-defeating President Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on US steel imports has sent the price of US hot-rolled coiled steel skyrocketing. But how sustainable is the rally in prices? In this Metals Watch we... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors become less positive on metals Investor sentiment in the metals markets has deteriorated since the start of 2018, although more so for precious metals than industrial. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have recently... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sustainable is the recent fall in gold prices? The recent fall has brought the price of gold close to our end-2018 forecast of $1,300. While Fed policy tightening is usually negative for gold prices, higher demand for inflation hedges and a weaker... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update More downside ahead for PGMs Supply of platinum group metals (PGMs) is likely to fall in 2018, as reserve depletion in South Africa takes its toll. Nonetheless, we expect prices to decline from current levels as demand is also... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver mine supply to bounce back in 2018 After two years of declines, we expect silver mine supply to pick up in 2018 as higher industrial metals prices encourage by-product output. This is one reason behind our relatively bearish view on... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2018 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell sharply in Q1, primarily owing to lower investment. We expect demand to remain subdued as Fed tightening raises the opportunity cost of holding an asset like gold which bears... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A month of two halves for metals April was a month of two halves for most metals. The imposition of US sanctions on Russia sent the prices of several industrial and precious metals – notably aluminium, nickel and palladium – surging... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Geopolitics trump fundamentals Commodity price indices surged in April despite a jump in the US dollar. Fading fears of a global trade war gave a lift to riskier assets more generally, while escalating tensions in the Middle East... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Three key risks to commodity prices In this Commodities Watch, we take stock of three of the most serious geopolitical risks that have emerged over the past few months. These are the prospect of a trade war between the US and China, US... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Safe-haven demand gives a boost to gold prices Despite the prospect of tighter monetary policy in the US, the price of gold has proved particularly resilient so far this year. We think that strong safe-haven demand on the back of heightened... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Quiet after the storm The earlier surge in oil and industrial metals prices came to an abrupt halt this week as oil stabilised and there were sharp falls in the prices of some metals. In particular, the US Treasury’s... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) The latest trade data for India and China showed that imports of gold in the two largest consumers weakened in March. Higher prices probably discouraged purchases. We had warned that this could happen... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Rising tensions boost prices Geopolitical concerns continued to be the main driver of commodities prices this week. In particular, fears that US sanctions could be broadened to include Russian producer, Nornickel, buoyed the... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
