Capital Daily We think the fundamental backdrop for gold remains negative Despite its surprising resilience over the past few weeks, we still think the price of gold will fall to $1,600/oz. by the end of 2022. 25th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Deteriorating risk appetite adds to price headwinds Despite falls in the prices of most other risky assets, including equities, commodities held up well this week. The prices of equities and commodities tracked each other relatively closely throughout... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A good start to a bad year for commodity prices Most commodity prices increased this week, with coal prices leading the pack on the back of Indonesia’s ban on coal exports this month. That said, we don’t see commodity prices rising for much longer... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Prices to come off the boil in 2022 After a stellar run in 2020-21, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back this year as economic activity slows, notably in China, and supply bottlenecks start to ease. Drop-In: Neil... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears giving way to supply concerns The experience of South Africa with the Omicron variant seems to have allayed investors’ fears over commodity demand. Indeed, the net long position held by investors in the oil futures market has... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Watch Commodity supply shortages set to ease in 2022 In this Commodities Watch, we take a closer look at commodity markets where supply shortages during the pandemic have been most severe and, consequently, where price increases have been most extreme... 21st December 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly More hawkish central banks may put a lid on prices It was a week of central bank decisions, culminating in ‘Super-Thursday’. The big picture is that central banks generally sounded more concerned about the rise in inflation, despite the ongoing spread... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Renewed surge in Chinese demand still seems unlikely We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ sticks to its plan, no forecast change required Oil prices fell briefly on Thursday after OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its plan to raise oil output by 0.4m bpd a month, despite plunging oil prices since news of Omicron broke. Prices recovered... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly New COVID-19 variant could spark energy price falls Most commodity prices fell on Friday after South African scientists declared they had identified a new COVID-19 variant on Thursday which may be more transmissible. We think it’s still early days to... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Watch Higher inflation won’t stop the gold price from falling In this Metals Watch, we revisit the theoretical relationship between the price of gold and inflation, before assessing how this relationship has held up throughout history . The key takeaway is that... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ unlikely to ride to the rescue anytime soon Despite falling short of its targeted increase in output once again in October, we think OPEC+ will continue to snub calls to raise output more rapidly. The week began with comments from the Biden... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
