Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian FX & cabinet, China woes, BRICS summit Continued naira weakness and fuel price concerns have prompted Nigeria’s government to undertake some short-term fixes that threaten renewed vulnerabilities further down the line. Our concerns about... 18th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices hit a great wall, metals await stimulus Commodity prices generally fell this week, dragged down by a surging dollar and data that showed China’s economy struggled in July. Asia LNG and EU natural gas prices were the exception, rising as the... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus not a silver bullet for industrial metals The outlook for industrial metals demand has deteriorated alongside the weakening of China’s economy this year, particularly in the property sector. Monetary and fiscal stimulus might paper over the... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Natural gas prices strike higher Natural gas prices were the biggest mover in commodity markets this week, jumping higher on the back of news of potential industrial action at LNG plants in Australia. We don’t think gas prices in... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 9th August 2023 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We expect targeted stimulus in China to put a floor under base metals prices in the remainder of 2023. But the slowdown in developed economies (DMs) will prevent significant gains. Prices should start... 8th August 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports falter but won’t collapse China’s commodity import volumes fell in July compared to June. Policy support should help lift metals imports over the next few months. And although crude oil imports fell sharply, we think that... 8th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are grim reading for commodities demand China’s PMIs suggest that commodities demand has come completely off the boil. For the recent rally in industrial metals prices to be sustained, China’s policymakers will have to deliver on promises... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Global steel production growth picked up in June, albeit only to a pace consistent with stagnant growth. With the rise in output in China on shaky ground and weak demand beginning to weigh on supply... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks to our agricultural price forecasts In a week when the US dollar strengthened and the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, agricultural and energy commodity prices still climbed on the back of supply concerns. In the case of agriculturals... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (June) Global aluminium production growth eased again in June, in a sign that smelters are responding to weak demand growth. We think that production growth will remain subdued over the next few months as... 20th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update El Niño likely to add to supply woes The widely-differing impact of El Niño across continents means that the net effect on global mining output is not clear cut. On balance, though, the likelihood is that it will lead to lower ore output... 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain strong in June China’s commodity import volumes remained high in June, helped by the economic re-opening, but they were held back by softening input-related demand for the manufacture of goods for export. As... 13th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were... 7th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper prices to tread water until 2024 Expectations of fiscal stimulus in China have thrown previously floundering copper prices a lifeline. If policymakers go ahead, that may keep a floor under prices before a turnaround in construction... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
