Metals Watch A rosy outlook for copper prices Copper has fallen dramatically out of favour since the start of 2015. Prices have dropped nearly 10% since the beginning of the year. Projections of strong growth in mine supply and concerns about... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rebound in Brent fails to lift metals prices Even though industrial metals prices were dragged lower by the fall in the price of oil last year, they have yet to benefit from Brent’s recent recovery. Indeed, the futures curves for most industrial... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response ILZSG Data (2014) The preliminary 2014 data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) show another year of deficit in the global zinc market, while the lead market was effectively in balance. With... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Grexit” could boost gold now, other commodities later Weather-related factors were responsible for the biggest moves in individual commodity prices in the past week: a cold snap in the US drove up the cost of natural gas, while further rains across key... 20th February 2015 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Surely aluminium premiums have to fall soon? Aluminium price premiums should fall in 2015 based on supply and demand fundamentals. Admittedly, they have not been easy to justify on these grounds for some time. But we think changing dynamics in... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for January 2015 showed a fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. It could be that the oversupply in the Chinese market is at last leading to producer... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Dwindling surpluses to boost nickel prices Falling ore stocks at China’s ports and lower ore exports from the Philippines are likely to curb Chinese refined nickel output this year. Given steady demand growth, prices should rebound. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Recovery in oil prices may falter soon The rebound in global oil prices has lifted Brent crude back to $61 per barrel, slightly above our existing forecast for the end of the year but consistent with our central scenario of a recovery to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus What next for global metals demand? Concerns about global growth prospects, and particularly the slowdown in China, have reportedly been a key factor in the recent falls in metals prices. However, we would argue that these fears are... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices to remain in the doldrums Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks failing to signal demand trends Stock movements, in general, continue to tell us more about the attractiveness of holding commodity assets off-market rather than anything about underlying physical demand. However, low official... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery set to be slow-going Following last year’s sharp downturn, economic growth in Latin America should improve this year and next. But the pace of the recovery will be slow-going and GDP growth will remain far weaker than... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook 2015 to be a year of recovering prices 2014 was the fourth successive year of poor performance by commodities, especially relative to bonds and equities, but we believe 2015 will be the year when many finally turn the corner. The recent... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A sustained rally in oil prices? Oil prices have rebounded by over 20% in the last week during a period of highly volatile trading. The rally was sparked by growing evidence of declining US rig counts and multiple announcements of... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
