Commodities Update China’s PMIs still underplaying commodity demand China PMI surveys suggest that the economy lost momentum in December, but we suspect that the surveys are not reflecting economic reality. Activity and import data all point to resilient commodity... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia IMF deal, Angola leaves OPEC, DRC elections Zambia’s continued progress with fiscal consolidation is paying dividends. It unlocked the latest tranche of its IMF deal this week and its compliance with the Fund’s targets may help to progress debt... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) After hitting a new record in October, global aluminium production slipped back in November. We suspect that the new record will not be toppled in the coming months owing to power rationing in China... 20th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Metals to benefit in 2024 from green transition We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the... 15th December 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Update Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc glut to shrink in 2024 Even though zinc supply growth is likely to remain solid owing to strong growth in China and easing input cost constraints in Europe, we think that those factors will be outstripped by a recovery in... 7th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs may be understating commodity demand China PMI surveys suggest that the economy flatlined in November, but there was good news for commodity demand with the relative strength in the construction PMI. We suspect that underlying activity... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ won’t let prices slide Moves in commodity prices have been fairly muted on the week, but this masks a dramatic mid-week plunge and recovery in oil prices. The big news was that OPEC+ announced a four-day delay to its policy... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Panama protests against copper production Protests against a large copper mine have raged in Panama over the past few weeks. If mine production ceased, there would be noticeable impact on global supply but the risk of this happening is small... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy and precious metal prices will remain volatile while there is a risk that the... 3rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest metals prices to hold steady The PMI surveys released so far for China weakened in October with the manufacturing PMIs falling back into contractionary territory. We think China’s demand for commodities will be supported by... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) Monthly global steel output in September fell in year-on-year terms for the first time in 2023, in large part due to a contraction in China’s production. With demand set to remain weak and low... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt prices to drift lower through 2024 Cobalt is likely to keep its position as a leading battery metal for years to come, but its high cost compared to alternative metals means that cobalt demand won’t grow as fast as overall battery... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Wait-and-see” prevails in commodities markets It was a mixed week for prices, with energy, agricultural and precious metals outperforming industrial metals. There was a relatively muted reaction to the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China's commodity demand remains rock solid China imported fewer key commodities in September than in August, but its underlying demand for commodities, especially fossil fuels, remains strong and is only likely to strengthen from here. 13th October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Why is China’s commodities demand so strong? China’s recent commodity demand has been stronger than might have been expected given the weakness of its economy and commodity-intensive property sector in particular. This partly reflects a step-up... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
