Commodities Weekly Fed jitters take some of the steam out of the rally Commodity prices fell back in the past week after the release of the minutes from the April FOMC signalled that US interest rates could yet rise as soon as next month. The markets are still only... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show that global steel output rose by 0.5% year on year in April. However, after sharp falls in January and February, global steel output... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output declined by 0.6% y/y in April. But the headline figure does not tell the whole story. Indeed, apart from in the US... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Is the rally in US steel prices sustainable? The price of steel in the US market has surged recently but it could be yet another commodity where premature price rises encourage additional supply. We caution that prices may fall from here as... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil up on supply outages, metals down on demand fears The stronger US dollar and renewed concerns about the robustness of the credit-led recovery in China’s economy weighed on metals prices this week. However, oil benefited from the disruptions to supply... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Commodities Watch - WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals In this new monthly publication, we intend to focus on key developments in agricultural commodities as well as draw on the more in-depth analysis from our Energy and Metals services. This month, we... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will copper continue to underperform oil? We expect the recent under-performance of copper prices relative to oil to be reversed over the remainder of the year. Oil prices have been boosted by supply outages which should prove temporary... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals In this new monthly publication, we intend to focus on key developments in agricultural commodities as well as draw on the more in-depth analysis from our Energy and Metals services. This month, we... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Very weak showing in key sectors Declining output from the manufacturing and mining sectors underscore the weakness of South Africa’s economy. Given today’s grim figures – and the recent jump in unemployment – we expect that the SARB... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stockbuild in China reflects optimism about demand Since the start of 2016, stocks of all the LME metals have fallen, while SHFE inventories of the same metals have risen. We think this trend reflects two main factors. First, optimism that physical... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper still waiting in the wings The price of copper has not risen by as much as the prices of other metals in recent months. But we think the underlying outlook for demand is strong and that there are risks on the supply side. As... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A note of caution on the recent price rallies The prices of most industrial metals rose in April, although prices have eased back in the last week. A weaker US dollar, as market expectations of US interest rate rises were scaled back, was a key... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack It’s all about the dollar Commodity prices rose again in April on a combination of persistent weakness in the US dollar and investor optimism about a recovery in Chinese demand. While our long-held view has been that... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Medium-term prospects remain bright The recent rebounds in many commodity prices have been stronger than even we had anticipated and may be premature. We would not therefore be surprised – or that worried – to see some temporary pull... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors cannot ignore oversupply of iron ore much longer The large speculative element in the recent rally in iron ore prices suggests that prices are especially vulnerable to any waning in the enthusiasm of Chinese investors, perhaps prompted by a further... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s copper boom set to continue Surging copper production will continue to boost GDP growth in Peru over the next couple of years and, while growth is likely to ease in 2018 as mining output stabilises, we expect a recovery in other... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
