Commodities Weekly

Strikes on Russia’s refineries raise oil price risks

Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged...

22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Steel Production (Feb. 2024)

The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow...

22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Feb.)

The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted.

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The copper supply squeeze begins to bite

It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the...

15th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt

Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and a bit of a recovery in...

8th March 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices

China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support...

6th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance

We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

China PMIs point to stable commodity demand

China’s PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing activity held steady in February and are consistent with stable, if unexciting, growth in commodity demand. That said, we continue to expect a near-term...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Tin up; we expect prices to rise

Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in...

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Falls in prices starting to hit supply

The prices of a number of individual commodities benefitted this week from producers announcing cuts to supply. Lower supply growth is one of the factors supporting our forecast of modest gains in US...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: China trade data and the commodities demand outlook

1709798400

How strong was Chinese commodities demand at the start of 2024? What do official growth and spending targets signal about demand over the coming year?

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Jan.)

Global aluminium production was unchanged in January compared to December. This reinforces our view that production growth will soften this year.

20th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Europe's aluminium industry not dead yet

Higher aluminium prices and lower production costs should incentivise Europe’s smelters to restart some production in both 2024 and 2025. The introduction of CBAM in 2026 means prices will then...

15th February 2024 · 3 mins read