Commodities Weekly Trump’s tariffs target commodities It was generally a negative week for commodity prices. Oil prices tumbled and precious metals prices were buffeted by Jerome Powell’s testimony, which all but ensured a rate hike this month. China’s... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What will US tariffs mean for steel prices? President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports was expected. But what is perhaps more surprising is that the tariffs are particularly punitive and threaten to ignite... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a deal are the US tariffs? Steel and aluminium account for about 2% of world trade, so the direct impact on the global economy of the tariffs President Trump announced yesterday would be minimal. But the fact that they are... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Agriculturals bucked the trend Commodity prices fell sharply in the wake of the sell-off in global equity markets in late-January, but have recovered much of the lost ground. The key sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI are now close to... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 0.8% y/y increase in global steel production in January led by higher output in the EU, India and Turkey. US production remained weak, which is one reason... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) Global aluminium output continued to grow strongly in January, led by increases in China and other Asian countries. With no apparent shortage of supply, we expect prices to ease back in 2018. 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rising supply should boost stocks in 2018 Stocks of copper and aluminium have risen strongly since the start of 2018, but inventories of the other base metals have fallen. Supply was tight in the smaller markets last year, but it is now... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is the rally in coal prices burning out? Coal prices have fallen back a little since the start of this year as temperatures increased and supply picked up, but they remain high. This Energy Watch examines the outlook for demand and supply... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors become less positive on metals There are early signs that investor sentiment in the metals markets is deteriorating, although more so for industrial metals than precious. Some of the technical indicators that we monitor have... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US tariffs on steel and aluminium appear inevitable The price of US steel has already benefited from the prospect of heightened protectionism in the US. Indeed, prices could actually fall back if President Trump decides to moderate his actions to... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Is the party over? Commodity prices started 2018 on a high, bolstered by optimism about global growth prospects and the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. However, we think there are now clear signs that growth in... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities caught up in the wider sell-off The latest falls in commodity prices have more to do with risk aversion than any deterioration in underlying demand and supply fundamentals. That said, we had always expected commodity prices to fall... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Is the rally starting to fizzle out? The prices of most metals continued to make gains in the first month of 2018. The persistent depreciation of the US dollar supported the prices of all the metals, but notably that of gold. However... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Dollar weakness bolsters commodities Commodity prices trended higher in January, with all the major sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI recording gains. Energy led the way, rising by 4.5% m/m. Dollar weakness was the main driver of the rally in... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2017) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 3.9% y/y increase in global steel production in December and a 5.3% rise in 2017 as a whole. Expectations that the capacity closures in China would prompt a... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2017) Global aluminium output bounced back last month, led by a jump in China’s production. It seems likely that refineries ramped up output to benefit from high prices and the capacity closures in parts of... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
