Commodities Update

China NPC is pro-growth, but not enough to lift prices

China’s government is planning further fiscal loosening and hinting at rate cuts this year, with the aim of boosting economic activity. We think the policy backdrop is sufficient to support...

6th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance

We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

China PMIs point to stable commodity demand

China’s PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing activity held steady in February and are consistent with stable, if unexciting, growth in commodity demand. That said, we continue to expect a near-term...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Tin up; we expect prices to rise

Given the signs that cyclical and structural forces will raise tin demand this year, set against a backdrop of tightening supply due to the mining ban in Myanmar, we forecast the tin price to rise in...

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Falls in prices starting to hit supply

The prices of a number of individual commodities benefitted this week from producers announcing cuts to supply. Lower supply growth is one of the factors supporting our forecast of modest gains in US...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: China trade data and the commodities demand outlook

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How strong was Chinese commodities demand at the start of 2024? What do official growth and spending targets signal about demand over the coming year?

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Jan.)

Global aluminium production was unchanged in January compared to December. This reinforces our view that production growth will soften this year.

20th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Europe's aluminium industry not dead yet

Higher aluminium prices and lower production costs should incentivise Europe’s smelters to restart some production in both 2024 and 2025. The introduction of CBAM in 2026 means prices will then...

15th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Wave of supply will keep nickel prices low

We think the huge expansion in nickel supply will keep the market balance in a sizeable surplus this year. Accordingly, we don’t think the price will muster a recovery from its recent slump.

12th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Cocoa prices could be close to a melting point

The price of cocoa was the star performer this week in commodity markets, rising by 16% on the week. The price has risen by 40% since the start of this year, on the back of consistently poor harvests...

9th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SONA, Kenya buyback, Zambian copper

South African President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address this week pointed to costly welfare and healthcare expansions ahead of this year’s election. This would make the job of stabilising the...

9th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary...

6th February 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Focus

Will Chile seize the green transition opportunity?

Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile...

6th February 2024 · 21 mins read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and stabilising economic...

2nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Metals Focus

Introducing our lithium price forecast

We forecast that global lithium demand will roughly double by 2025 (from 2022). But supply will increase at a slower pace, which is why we forecast that prices will rise. In this Metals Focus, we set...

31st January 2024 · 11 mins read