Commodities Weekly China will be back in the spotlight The focus of commodity markets next week is likely to be the raft of data out of China, culminating in Q3 GDP and September industrial output and investment spending on Friday. The September data, in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The solid growth in China’s commodity import volumes appears at odds with data pointing to softer economic activity. As such, we expect import volumes to turn down in the coming months. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices set to tumble Supply concerns have led to a rise in Chinese steel prices this year. However, weaker growth in demand at a time of rising production suggests that prices will fall back sharply in 2019. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Five key questions for LME Week With LME Week starting today, it appears an opportune time to review the main discussion points that will be the hot topics at this seminal event in the metals calendar, and to share our views on them... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Demand weakness means rally is on borrowed time Metal prices rebounded strongly in September, in a relief rally, as the latest round of US-Chinese tariffs were lower than initially feared. However, slower growth in Chinese manufacturing and the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil is losing touch with reality The latest leg-up in the oil price, to around $85 per barrel, was fuelled by persistent fears of a supply shortfall. However, we remain of the view that the market’s worst fears will not be realised... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities rally, but too good to last Commodity prices jumped in the second half of the month despite a stronger US dollar. Concerns about Iranian production and news that OPEC didn’t increase output at one of its technical meetings meant... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply prospects take centre stage Supply-side developments were the key driver of most commodity markets this week, but they are pushing prices in opposing directions. In the oil market, supply concerns sent Brent crude to a 46-month... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in China’s PMIs do not bode well for prices The downturn evident in China’s PMI readings for September is consistent with the recent weakness in industrial metals prices. The authorities have started to ease policy, which should start to... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Alumina prices to tumble Alumina prices have jumped in recent months on supply-side concerns. We think that the current supply disruptions will be resolved and we expect prices to fall by end-2019. 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Zinc prices to weaken again in 2019 In recent days, the price of zinc has rebounded a little after plummeting over the summer. In this Metals Watch we will discuss why we think that any rally will prove short-lived. A slew of new mines... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) Growth in global steel production slowed in August to 2.6%y/y, but the bigger picture is that it has expanded by a rapid 5.4% y/y in the first eight months of this year. However, we think that growth... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities join in “relief” rally The prices of most commodities rose this week as part of a more general rebound in financial markets. Although both the US and China announced another round of tariffs, there was some relief that the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to rise in 2019 We think that stagnating supply growth, solid demand and lower global stocks will prompt some recovery in the price of copper in 2019. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Convergence on the cards At first glance, there might appear to be some tension between our forecast that oil prices will fall in 2019, while industrial metals prices will end the year a little higher. In fact, it is more a... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
