Commodities Update Metals in firing line of latest US tariffs Commodity prices plummeted yesterday in a knee-jerk reaction to the news of more US tariffs on Chinese goods. We have argued for some time that the US-China trade war was likely to escalate, and it... 2nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Outlook Base metals to see better days in 2020 Recent rallies in metals prices, particularly in precious metals and iron ore, are likely to falter sooner rather than later. Indeed, we expect almost all metals prices to drop in the remainder of... 29th July 2019 · 18 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Faltering demand from the Chinese construction sector should mean that the recent downturn in global steel output growth should gather pace in the months ahead. 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) Global aluminium output slumped in June, as a sharp fall in Chinese output outweighed increases elsewhere. But putting this month’s reading to one side, there are now clear signs that global aluminium... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Little to galvanise investors to buy zinc We expect refined zinc output to grow at its fastest pace for nine years in 2019 and this, combined with ailing demand, suggests zinc prices should continue to fall to our end-2019 forecast of $2,300... 12th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Low exchange stocks not a problem, for now … As demand fears have taken centre stage, persistently low exchange stocks have stayed under the radar. We think this is unlikely to change this year. But in 2020, looser monetary conditions and rising... 11th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The ABC of aluminium restarts We believe that the restarts at Alunorte, Becancour and in China will provide additional downward pressure on the price of aluminium. This, coupled with a weak demand backdrop, means that we expect... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Clouds gathering over metals demand The key themes last month were a marked decline in expectations for global growth and a dash for safe-haven assets by investors. Even the recent easing of tensions in the US-China trade dispute has... 4th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper not to come a cropper Despite rising trade tensions and soft demand growth, we think that the price of copper will be resilient in the coming months and rally thereafter due to supply constraints. 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The writing is on the wall for Chinese steel Chinese steel rebar prices have been bolstered recently by surprisingly resilient construction activity, but we expect demand to falter in the coming months and prices to fall sharply. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) Global aluminium production was unable to shake off its recent malaise in May. That said, lower input costs could offer some support to output this year. But regardless of any supply developments, our... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Surpluses to weigh on cobalt prices in 2019 and 2020 There has been a renewed slump in the price of cobalt in recent months, owing in large part to a jump in supply. In this Metals Watch, we explore cobalt’s short-term supply and demand prospects and... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed easing not a panacea for commodities Driven in large part by investors pricing in a greater degree of interest rate cuts in the US, the gold price leapt to its highest level in over a year this week. That same anticipation of policy... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The US steel price bloodbath is not over yet US steel prices have tumbled by more than a third over the past year and we think that a weaker US economy, combined with rising imports, means prices should fall by a further 15% over the next year. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Risk aversion is another headwind for metals prices The recent escalation in global trade tensions and ongoing weakness in the world economy have led to a sell-off in risky assets, including most industrial metals. In contrast, the price of gold has... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
