Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Aluminium output growth slowed last month. But with demand for aluminium collapsing, nothing short of a huge contraction in output will do enough to prevent stocks from piling up. Such a fall in... 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Metals Focus A deep dive on supply in the context of COVID-19 It is now crystal clear that virus containment measures will deal an unrivalled blow to metals demand. But the extent to which these same measures may also hit supply is up for debate. Despite all the... 16th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lower steel production to drag on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have been supported so far this year by China’s steel mills, which have continued to churn out metal. But with demand in China still subdued, and the virus-related disruption yet to... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals still staring into the abyss Industrial metals prices plummeted in March. And with the virus-related disruption outside of China yet to peak, we suspect that prices will fall further over the coming months. Even if containment... 2nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Metals Watch Copper’s “price premium” to grow In this Metals Watch, we introduce our measure of the “fundamental” copper price. A key takeaway is that, while we expect the traded price of copper to recover some lost ground by year-end, there is... 30th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why supply cuts don’t matter (yet) Several producers outside China have reduced operations in the past week, most notably in Latin America. But much like policy support, lower supply will do little to boost prices so long as measures... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) Global steel output was reasonably resilient in February. But that follows substantial downward revisions to the January figures. And while policy support – particularly in China – may boost steel... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) Despite alarm bells ringing for global aluminium demand, output growth continued to gather pace in February. This will only have added to the piles of unwanted inventory and is another reason to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still some way from the bottom Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets. Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Stock hangover to dampen any recovery in prices Downward revisions to our demand forecasts mean that we now expect all base metal markets to be oversupplied in H1 2020. Lower output should, at best, prevent these surpluses from growing too large... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Don’t rule out further price falls February was another poor month for industrial metals. However, prices fell by less than in January and policy loosening seems to have stabilised prices more recently. That said, the outbreak of COVID... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus to push iron ore and steel higher The prospect of stronger demand stemming from stimulus in China, alongside recent supply disruptions, means that we now expect the deficit in the iron ore market to deepen this year, rather than... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices still searching for the bottom Commodity prices continued to fall in February as the coronavirus, which started in China, spread to most other regions of the world and sparked fears of a slowdown in global economic activity. We... 4th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Revising our forecasts as COVID-19 effects linger We had previously assumed that any coronavirus-related hit to metals demand in Q1 would be made up in subsequent quarters. But that now seems unlikely. As a result, we are lowering our year-end price... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
