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Commodities Drop-In: Geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook

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Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so.

Commodities Focus

Fed rate cuts won’t send commodity prices soaring

The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower...

16th April 2024 · 12 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Further falls in store for iron ore amid falling demand

This year’s falls in iron ore prices are likely to have been a dress rehearsal for what's ahead. Our China team’s forecast for the property sector to halve by the end of the decade does not bode well...

16th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Russian metal ban won’t rock the boat

We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact...

15th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Precious metals rise again; gas markets unstable

The stronger-than-expected US CPI data for March may have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher but commodity prices largely shrugged off the news. Indeed, precious metals rose strongly this week...

12th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

A firm start to the year for China’s commodity imports

China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction...

12th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

China property contraction to hit metals prices hard

In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now...

10th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

US steel prices on shaky foundations

US steelmakers are preparing for robust growth in steel demand over the next few years, however we think those expectations will fall flat. Steel demand from property construction is likely to fall...

5th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now

We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent...

4th April 2024 · 33 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Strikes on Russia’s refineries raise oil price risks

Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged...

22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Steel Production (Feb. 2024)

The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow...

22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Feb.)

The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted.

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The copper supply squeeze begins to bite

It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the...

15th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt

Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in...

8th March 2024 · 6 mins read