Commodities Weekly Looking for direction There wasn’t a clear direction in commodity markets this week, with most prices driven by commodity-specific factors. Natural gas and coal prices continued to surge, while the prices of some... 3rd September 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs support our forecast of lower metals prices The China PMI data for August continue to suggest that commodity demand in the world’s largest consumer is coming off the boil. As a result, the wedge between industrial metals prices and the China... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Dollar depreciation unlikely to last There was a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of commodities prices this week, with across-the-board gains as risk appetite picked up and the US dollar eased back. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) A slump in China’s steel production in July led to a dramatic slowdown in growth in global steel output. While China’s production may stabilise or rebound a little in the coming months, it appears... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Delta to continue to weigh on prices Commodity prices mostly fell this week on the back of a stronger US dollar as well as mounting concerns over the demand outlook. China’s July activity and spending data, published on Monday, were... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Aluminium prices have recently been supported by reports that government-imposed power rationing has weighed on production in China, but there is little evidence of this in the latest data for July... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tide is turning against steel production in China The government in China has stepped up measures to tackle pollution and excess capacity in the domestic steel sector over the past few months. This adds weight to our view that steel production, and... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cooling Chinese growth to weigh on metal prices China’s latest activity data are further evidence of a slowdown in its economy. This aligns with our view that industrial metals demand will soften in the year ahead, putting downward pressure on... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Alarming UN report could spark more green spending The UN’s latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report warned that ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions are a ‘code red for humanity’, which could give further momentum to the... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for Latin America We expect that most commodity prices will come off the boil, which will weigh on recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Peru and Chile. While the brightening domestic picture will boost... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Lower China commodity imports here to stay The latest trade data out of China adds to the evidence that demand growth in the world’s key commodity consumer is slowing. This supports our view that the broad-based rally in commodity prices from... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Delta variant taking centre stage Concerns surrounding the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 were the main driver of prices this week, but the impact on prices was far from uniform. Not surprisingly, oil prices slumped as many... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation The asset allocation implications of China’s slowdown The further slowdown we expect in China would probably be a headwind for some “risky” assets that are particularly sensitive to its economic cycle. It also informs our view that China’s sovereign... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Metals Outlook At the start of a downswing in prices Although the prices of industrial metals have picked up again recently, we still expect them to be falling over the next year or so. Underpinning this view are our forecasts for economic growth to... 4th August 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weaker metals demand China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
