Commodities Chart Pack Gas & coal surge to support other commodity prices Natural gas and coal prices soared in September. In turn, this has raised the output costs of industrial metals, most notably those which are especially energy intensive such as aluminium and steel... 5th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy prices surge as rally looks overdone Commodity prices generally rose this week, but especially energy prices, which continued to surge on constrained supply, unseasonably high demand and low stocks. That said, we think the supply... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s power shortage curbs metal supply & demand China’s manufacturing PMIs for September diverged, but both still point to subdued commodities demand. What’s more, the surveys were conducted before power shortages started to constrain activity... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Headwinds facing metals exporters It looks like EM exports rose further in August and, possibly, September too. And while we expect them to decline over the coming quarters, they will remain elevated. However, China’s property... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel market set to remain oversupplied We believe that current high nickel prices will prove short lived, and expect weaker economic growth in China and the tapering of US monetary policy support to depress demand for nickel and pull down... 28th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downward pressure on prices is mounting Commodity prices held up well this week, despite the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve and continued worries over a messy default by Evergrande, the Chinese property developer. Notably, European... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) Despite high prices, global steel output contracted in August. And given that the authorities in China are proactively encouraging lower output there, further falls in the coming months appear likely. 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) August’s IAI data suggest that fears that power rationing in Chinese smelting hubs would negatively impact supply, which have boosted aluminium prices to decade highs, are overdone. Instead, we think... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Three key developments to keep an eye on Most commodity prices ground higher this week. And, stepping back, we think events this week highlight three key themes to watch in the months ahead. First, natural gas prices show no sign of easing... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly More of the same Commodity markets have been relatively quiet over the last few weeks, with many prices trading in a narrow range. There are a few exceptions, most notably the prices of natural gas and coal, which... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc set to lose its shine After climbing to multi-year highs in May, the zinc price has stayed strong, with much less volatility than its counterparts. However, we feel weaker economic growth in China and US tapering of... 6th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Commodity prices on increasingly shaky ground After sharp falls in the middle of the month, most commodity prices ended August broadly flat. However, we doubt it will be long before the downward pressure on prices intensifies again. After all... 3rd September 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Looking for direction There wasn’t a clear direction in commodity markets this week, with most prices driven by commodity-specific factors. Natural gas and coal prices continued to surge, while the prices of some... 3rd September 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China aluminium output: how worried should we be? Aluminium prices have recently been boosted by a series of supply outages in China. But unlike Chinese steel production, where declines have been driven largely by government policy which looks here... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
