Commodities Weekly More hawkish central banks may put a lid on prices It was a week of central bank decisions, culminating in ‘Super-Thursday’. The big picture is that central banks generally sounded more concerned about the rise in inflation, despite the ongoing spread... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Renewed surge in Chinese demand still seems unlikely We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices still set for a downturn We doubt that the recent jump in China’s iron ore imports is indicative of increasing demand. In fact, we expect demand for iron ore in China to cool as construction activity continues to slow and the... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in China commodity imports may be misleading The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ sticks to its plan, no forecast change required Oil prices fell briefly on Thursday after OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its plan to raise oil output by 0.4m bpd a month, despite plunging oil prices since news of Omicron broke. Prices recovered... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green transition to help charge cobalt prices Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs still paint a bleak picture for commodities Taken together, China’s manufacturing PMIs point to somewhat stronger industrial activity in November, but this was almost entirely due to improved power supply last month rather than a pick-up in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly New COVID-19 variant could spark energy price falls Most commodity prices fell on Friday after South African scientists declared they had identified a new COVID-19 variant on Thursday which may be more transmissible. We think it’s still early days to... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update The slump in the Baltic Dry Index is all about iron ore Some commentators have pointed to the slump in the Baltic Dry Index as a sign that shipping bottlenecks are easing. But we think it is more a symptom of lower Chinese steel output and plunging iron... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output... 22nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Sky-high European steel prices on borrowed time After soaring towards the tail end of 2020, steel prices in Europe have eased back in recent months. And we think that prices will fall much further over the next couple of years, as a combination of... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
